093
FXUS63 KABR 301729 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MAIN HAZARDS IS HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH.
- WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE SMOKE (ALOFT) WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY; POTENTIALLY LONGER DEPENDING ON HOW
STEERING FLOW WINDS EVOLVE THIS WEEK. WHILE MOST OF THE SMOKE
SHOULD STAY ALOFT, SOME MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE COULD HAPPEN WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID
90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD, HEAT- RELATED ILLNESSES CAN BECOME A CONCERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS TRYING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER, BUT MUCH DRIER, BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. THE GRADIENT WIND
RESULTING WILL SUPPORT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY (15-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) WEST-COMPONENT WINDS TODAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
JUST A REALLY PLEASANT MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S
AND LOW HUMIDITY. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. SEE BELOW FOR AN
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AS A SURFACE PRESSURE SITS TO THE NORTH OF SD IN CANADA TODAY, THE
COLD FRONT THE MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TURN INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT AND WILL SIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HELP TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR FROM MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING OUT, STORM AND SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE DAY, GIVING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM STORMS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE IN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY. THIS
SMOKE SHOULD STAY ALOFT AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL START TO MOVE AGAIN AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN SD WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LOWER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD, THERE IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH HIGHER
SHEAR VALUES FROM A LOW LEVEL JET OVER SD, THOSE STORMS COULD THEN
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL THAT IS 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS AND SHOWERS THAT POP UP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MORE WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH. THIS SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY ALOFT AND COULD CREATE HAZY/MILKY SKIES AT TIMES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
SD BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE, THE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY A BIT DRIER, WITH MINIMUM
VALUES IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE TEMPERATURE, IN THE LOW 90S,
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER SD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE
ARE SIGNS THAT THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, BUT SINCE IT IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT, THE EXACT TIMING AND HAZARD DETAILS ARE A BIT FUZZY.
AS WE GET CLOSER, AN EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEEPS ON UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS AND DATA TO FIGURE OUT MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GOOD VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. SAID CONDITIONS COULD BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED,
MAINLY AT THE KATY TERMINAL AND MAINLY FROM BETWEEN 09Z TO 21Z,
DUE TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO TAKE
SHAPE SURROUNDING THE SMOKE ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE, WITH
NEAR SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS/OBSCURATION ENOUGH TO DROP
VISIBILITY PERHAPS DOWN TO 6 MILES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...10
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