587
FXUS63 KABR 301845
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
145 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MAIN
HAZARDS ARE HAIL 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS 60-75
MPH.
- WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE (ALOFT) WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY; POTENTIALLY LONGER DEPENDING ON
HOW STEERING FLOW WINDS EVOLVE THIS WEEK. WHILE MOST OF THE
SMOKE SHOULD STAY ALOFT, SOME MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE COULD HAPPEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY BEYOND.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS, POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING UP INTO THE LOW 90S
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
AT 1 PM CDT, SKIES ARE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND
80S. WINDS HAVE A WEST COMPONENT TODAY RUNNING GENERALLY 10-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION, WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY OF INTEREST DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS UP THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACQUIRE
SOME WAA-FORCING TYPE CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
OVER ALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ADJUSTS AND ALLOWS FOR SOME RETROGRESSION
OF THE BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS WILL
HELP PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST, SETTING
THE TABLE FOR SOME LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE) CONVECTION STARTING OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA.
THE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES IN THIS TROFFING OUT WEST/RIDGING OUT
EAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. CLUSTERS
ANALYSIS HAS NOT GIVEN UP ON A SCENARIO WHERE THE EASTERN RIDGE
COLLAPSES/REFOCUSES BACK TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY STAYS THERE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. SO,
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT "HEAT DOMES" ESTABLISHING OVER THE CWA DURING
THE 7-DAY. THE SMOKE FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES COULD EVENTUALLY
BEGIN POSING AIR-QUALITY/RESPIRATORY-HEALTH ISSUES. CONTINUING TO
INSERT SMOKE ALOFT INTO THE SKYCOVER GRIDDED FORECAST, AND IF
CONCENTRATIONS BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WX GRIDDED
FORECAST (FOR VISBY REDUCTION), WILL PURSUE THAT ROUTE AS WELL.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WEAK TO
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WAA-FORCED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW REGIME. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SUBTLE SHORTWAVES
SHOWING UP IN WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING FROM UTAH OVER TO TEXAS THAT
COULD END UP PROVIDING THE LARGER SCALE LIFT FOR ASCENT. MAINLY
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
MOST OF WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE CWA. MODELS
PROG A LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FINISHING THE JOB
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ON UP INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION HEADING INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY/DAY 3, GIVEN THE AVAILABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL
BE AROUND. NAM/FV3 CAM GUIDANCE THAT GOES OUT TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO 00Z FRIDAY,
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CWA BEFORE IT WOULD BEGIN TRACKING
INTO THIS CWA'S WEST-RIVER ZONES BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SUGGESTS THAT FRIDAY'S CONVECTION MAY NOT IMPACT THIS CWA MUCH PRIOR
TO 03Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS RIGHT WHEN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING SEMI-ZONAL/WEAK AND THAT RIDGE IS
STARTING TO MAKE ITS TRANSITION BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. SO,
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS A LITTLE BIT
MURKIER RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
GOOD VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES. SAID CONDITIONS COULD BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED,
MAINLY AT THE KATY TERMINAL AND MAINLY FROM BETWEEN 09Z TO 21Z,
DUE TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO TAKE
SHAPE SURROUNDING THE SMOKE ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE, WITH
NEAR SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS/OBSCURATION ENOUGH TO DROP
VISIBILITY PERHAPS DOWN TO 6 MILES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10
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