713
FXUS63 KABR 011112
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
612 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
-THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MAIN
HAZARDS ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 60-75
MPH. ADDITIONALLY, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WESTERN U.S. AND CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE (ALOFT) WILL BE OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND POTENTIALLY LONGER DEPENDING ON HOW
STEERING FLOW WINDS EVOLVES. WHILE MOST OF THE SMOKE SHOULD
STAY ALOFT, SOME MINOR CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
COULD HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS, POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING UP INTO THE LOW 90S
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS MOSTLY A LIGHT
RAIN. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BUT FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND WON'T AMOUNT OF MUCH MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST CANT BE
RULED OUT BUT LOOKING LESS POSSIBLE.
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SD WILL BE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH, IT WILL CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST,
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL PROVIDE SOME SHEAR AND
STEERING FLOW TO HELP THE STORMS MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SD. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THESE STORMS ARRIVING BETWEEN
2 AND 4 AM CDT THEN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE STORMS
TO BE SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS OF HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60MPH. THESE STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN SD BY MID-MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD, SOME
ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE HAIL OF 1 INCH AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN
THEM.
AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER SD. THIS SMOKE IS FORECAST TO COME IN
BEHIND THE MORNING STORMS AND MAINLY STAY ALOFT, THOUGH IF THERE ARE
SOME TALLER STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEY
COULD BRING SOME OF THAT SMOKE TO THE SURFACE FOR A BIT. THIS SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD FOR A
LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE SMOKE, ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES IN, THE FLOW WILL HELP MOVE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, OTHERWISE THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S INTO THE 90S AND THE WEEKEND WILL BE 80S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BECAUSE OF LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES & SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING OVER SD
IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AFTERNOON/EVENING ENVIRONMENT OVER SD.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND THEN MOVE IN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO HINT THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY START AS SUPERCELLS
WHEN THEY DEVELOP, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE (HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES,
WINDS OF 60-70 MPH, AND A TORNADO OR TWO). THEN AS THE STORMS START
TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING, THEY WILL
START TO HAVE MORE OF A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH COULD CAUSE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THOSE TIMES. THE DETAILS ON THIS ARE STILL A BIT
MURKY, AND WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGH BASED RAIN AT KATY WON'T
LAST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO AND IS LIKEWISE VFR. WINDS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOK PRETTY LIGHT AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN A
DEFINITIVE DIRECTION.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07
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