534
FXUS63 KABR 022346 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING UP INTO THE LOW 90S BETWEEN LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD ROLLED EAST ACROSS
THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY AND PRODUCED A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WE SAW SOME INITIAL
CONVECTIVE SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION KICKED OFF
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS OUTFLOW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
SD(NORTH OF PIERRE) WHICH WAS SHORT-LIVED. NOW, MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND IN
THE PIERRE AND FORT THOMPSON AREA.
A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS CONTAINS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IN
ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, A STATIONARY
FRONT IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD
WITH A LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS SFC CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONG SFC HEATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. RAP13/NAM12 DEPICT A COUPLE
AREAS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES,
BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HWY 212 AS WELL ACROSS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. MLCAPE VALUES IN THOSE AREAS MAY REACH
THE 3500-4000 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-45 KTS
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
IS WHAT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF IN THE PIERRE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ENHANCED (3 OF
5) TO SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INITIAL STORM MODE
FAVORS DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SFC
BOUNDARIES AND MOVE OFF SAID BOUNDARY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
INITIAL HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER, WITH TIME
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP AS STORMS COALESCE,
POTENTIALLY FORMING AN MCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH OR
STRONGER. WITH SHEAR VECTORS RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, OUTFLOW DOMINANT
CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED WITH TIME THAT WILL SUPPORT THIS SEVERE
WIND THREAT. CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION AS WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND SOME
LOCALES BEING AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE CELLS OVER TIME. AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN DECENT RAINS LATELY AND THAT ARE SATURATED WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE THREATS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO
SETTLE DOWN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES WITH THAT ACTIVITY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID
MORNING. WE'LL RESET THE MECHANISMS SO TO SPEAK FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT PARAMETERS RETURNING TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH THE
SAME SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY ONCE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER,
BUT PROBABILITIES FOR THAT ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE CONFINED CLOSER TO
THE SD/NE BORDER. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND
PERHAPS COULD LINGER THERE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEN,
WE SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD BY
THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY, SO WHEN WE AREN'T CLOUDED UP FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, A HAZY TYPE SKY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERNS
THIS EVENING, MORESO AT KATY/KMBG TERMINALS VERSUS KABR/KPIR IN
THE NEAR TERM. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KATY DURING
THE INITIAL HOUR OR TWO OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IFR VSBYS AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS DUE TO +TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KATY.
ELSEWHERE, PROB30 GROUPS COVER THE -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OVERALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS
AT KPIR/KMBG FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS CONFIDENT IN THIS
COMPARED TO THE ACTIVITY WE ARE EXPECTING TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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