342
FXUS63 KABR 031151 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MILES PER HOUR.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS, POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING UP INTO THE LOW 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENTLY (~07Z) KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SOME LINGERING STORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS REMAIN FAIRLY
SLOW-MOVING ARE PRODUCING SUB-SEVERE WINDS (SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING ISOLATED 30-45 MILES PER HOUR AT THE STRONGEST) AT THIS
TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT LATCHED ON TO THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY
WELL THIS MORNING, AND WHAT GUIDANCE DOES RESOLVE STORMS DISSIPATES
THEM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THAT SCENARIO PLAYING OUT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN PLAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BISECTING THE
LINE OF STORMS AND CREATING A MUCAPE (~1500-2000 J/KG) AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THAT STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO RIDE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE FOR THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THESE SUB-SEVERE
WINDS, AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. AT THE MOMENT,
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE CAMS AT THIS POINT, BOTH
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS. DUE TO THIS, CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW, BUT HERE ARE THE KEY POINTS: FIRST, TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS APPEAR
TO BE POSSIBLE - ONE IN THE MORNING, AND ANOTHER IN THE EVENING.
THROUGH BOTH ROUNDS, THE BEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. SECOND, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. TORNADO
POTENTIAL CAN'T QUITE BE RULED OUT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE ABERDEEN
CWA. OUTSIDE OF SEVERE CHANCES, THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE
TODAY IS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OUT WEST. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS
WILL REMAIN ALOFT, WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS REACHING THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY'S SETUP IS A BIT LESS FAVORABLE, AND THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABERDEEN CWA.
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SHEAR, WITH LESS THAN 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS THAT EXTEND TO
THIS PERIOD, THE ONE POTENTIAL CONSIDERATION IS SOME MARGINAL DCAPE
(EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AT TIMES). HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE ALOFT TO PULL
FROM CONFIDENCE WOULD BE QUITE LOW ON SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING
PRODUCED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ADDITIONAL SEVERE
CHANCES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY, CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN POP UP. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SET UP IN A WAY SUCH THAT WEAK TROUGHS WILL
PERPETUALLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO
SHORTWAVES AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA BEING EJECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY, MID TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY IN SEVERE
CHANCES EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES SIT IN THE 5-15% CHANCE RANGE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. OBVIOUSLY
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE EITHER WAY, AND
THESE PROBABILITIES LIKELY NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT FOR
NOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE LONGER END OF THE RUN. OTHERWISE, THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK) AND THERE IS LIMITED CONCERN FOR ANY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
RIGHT NOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. KPIR MAINTAINS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RECEIVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE FOUR
TERMINALS. BUT, KPIR/KATY PROBABLY HOLD THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF EXPERIENCING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SUB-
VFR VISBIES UNDER THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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