088
FXUS63 KABR 040517 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OF 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES PER HOUR.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS, POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RUNNING UP INTO THE LOW 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SEVERE WATCH 446 FOR JONES COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE
HOUR. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING, LARGELY FOR THE
POP/SKY FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LED TO A DECREASE IN POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS AND CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. AMPLE MLCIN SHOWN ON SPC MESOA DATA,
ALTHOUGH STILL PLENTY OF MUCAPE, WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA AS SEEN ON
KABR RADAR. WITH NO NOTABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING PRESENT
EITHER, THINK THE MAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION IN WESTERN SD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AND MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF
STANLEY COUNTY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
HIGHEST POPS THERE AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL
EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (UNTIL 9 PM
CDT) WITH TIME AND OR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING.
CONTINUOUS CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL SD NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA FROM THIS MORNING HAS CAUSED AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MARGINALLY STRONG SEVERE DEVELOPED
OVER EAST-CENTRAL SD EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS, AND PERHAPS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
WHERE THERE ARE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING MCS AND TRACK
SOUTH-EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE BOWING MCS. IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THESE STORMS TRACK SOUTH OF THIS CWA, OR PERHAPS
CLICK THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. A BIT FURTHER NORTHERN TRACK MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN JONES, LYMAN, AND STANLEY COUNTIES DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER SCENARIO TO MONITOR IS CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ND. A
FEW CAMS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL TRACK MOSTLY EASTWARD, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT DEVIATION SOUTHWARD WILL
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. OVERALL, WENT CONSERVATIVE ON POPS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT STATE OF
THE AND SOME SUPPORT FROM CAMS.
AS OF NOW, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEARS MOSTLY DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVERALL REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG AROUND
SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KABR/KATY, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD AS A PROB30.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...10
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