107
FXUS63 KABR 041218 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
718 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR.
- ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR STORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME WILL BE HAIL OF 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MILES PER HOUR.
- TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COOLDOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S) BY MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS
IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE A THUNDERSTORM HAS
DEVELOPED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN.
KEEPING AN EYE ON SOME STORMS IN WESTERN SD/ND MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE LINE, BUT ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THESE STORMS DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY BEFORE REACHING THE ABERDEEN CWA. OTHER THAN THAT, LIGHT
WINDS AND FULL RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL LEAD TO SOME CHANCES
FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAIN LIMITATION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WILL BE
CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING ALREADY INDICATE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 DEGREES, SO NOT MUCH FURTHER TO GO TO PRODUCE
FOG.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME CONVERGENCE TOWARDS SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN PARTICULAR
THIS EVENING (WITH SOME ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE). CAN'T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE GUST DUE TO SOME MARGINAL DCAPE (~800-900
J/KG) IN THE AREA, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE
STORMS. STILL, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE DUE TO THE SEVERE
WIND THREAT, LOCATED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SUNDAY HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRIER FORECAST,
PROVIDING A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE PERPETUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THE
AREA HAS BEEN UNDER RECENTLY.
THIS BREAK WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER, SINCE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW AMPLE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING
ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFT IN THE
AREA. MONDAY SPECIFICALLY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS. STRONG MUCAPE OF 2000-
3000+ J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF
7.5-8 C/KM WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL LIMITATION WOULD
BE SHEAR, WITH EARLY LOOKS AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
ENVIRONMENT TO STRUGGLE GETTING UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. ON THE WIND
SIDE OF THINGS, THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF AMPLE (>1000 J/KG) DCAPE,
ASSISTED BY LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC. WITH THE
EXPECTED LACK OF SHEAR MENTIONED ABOVE, COLLAPSING STORMS WOULD
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY OFFENDER FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES DO
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT DUE TO VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR (<10 KNOTS AT 0-1KM) AND LCLS LOOKING TO BE 3-5KM OR HIGHER.
WITH THIS LATEST ISSUANCE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BARRING PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER RISK MODELS ALSO HIGHLIGHT TUESDAY AS HAVING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(ALBEIT TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN TUESDAY). OUTSIDE OF SEVERE CHANCES,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR-ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL FACILITATE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TO
NEAR-NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S). CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION STILL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG THIS MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AT/NEAR KABR/KATY, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ADD AS A PROB30. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START HONING IN ON TIMING
LOCATION WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...17
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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