478
FXUS63 KABR 192336 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
HEAT INDICES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES.
- FAST MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT (20-40%). INITIALLY
A LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2" DIAMETER) THREAT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, TRANSITIONING TO A WIND THREAT (60 TO 80 MPH
GUSTS) AS STORMS SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
- HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY. LIGHTNING STARTS
FROM STORMS TONIGHT ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40
MPH DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND
20% ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, 25-35% ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. MINOR IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES THUS FAR, THOUGH
HUMIDITY HAS LIKEWISE RESPONDED HIGHER. COMPARING CURRENT READINGS
TO NBM BY 18Z, WERE ABOUT 6-10 DEGREES TOO COOL FROM MOBRIDGE TO
MILLER AND POINTS EAST, WHILE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS ON TRACK. MORE
SUN MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EVENTUALLY THE JAMES
VALLEY, SO WILL LEAVE HEADLINE IN PLACE BUT TRENDED HIGHWAY 281 AND
POINTS EAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS MID CLOUDS HEAD
THAT DIRECTION.
FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE AT
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RATHER STRETCHED, WEAK WAVE THATS OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
INCREASES TO 40KTS BETWEEN 00-03Z OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, WE HAVE DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH HAS PICKED UP THE
HUMIDITY FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-5F HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS
PREDICTED FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE NBM SO A LITTLE RICHER
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION, WITH THE NAM/HRRR AT AROUND 2500-
3000J/KG. THAT SAID, BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST DEEP MIXING IS STILL
REQUIRED FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION (UP TO 8KFT). THERE IS ALSO A
FETCH OF DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERLIES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND ABOUT A 40KT STORM
MOTION MEANS STILL LOOKING AT A WIND THREAT ONCE STORMS GET
ORGANIZED. CAMS ARE MOSTLY POINTING TO DEVELOPMENT 01-03Z ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, THOUGH A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NORTH CENTRAL ACTIVITY WILL THEN
RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CAMS ARE POINTING
TOWARDS MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.
THE RAP/HRRR ARE BRINGING IN SMOKE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
WELL, WITH THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE VIEWER LIKEWISE POINTING
TO SMOKE MIGRATING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CONCENTRATIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN COMPARISON TO WHAT THE EAST
COAST HAS BEEN DEALING WITH. ELEVATED SMOKE IS ALSO PREDICTED AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH. UNSURE OF THICKNESS AND WHAT
IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON MIXING WHICH WILL THUS EFFECT
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY AND WINDS.
REGARDLESS, NBM TEMPERATURES/WINDS/HUMIDITY CURRENTLY POINT TO RED
FLAG FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHICH MOSTLY MISSED OUT ON
MORNING PRECIPITATION. WHILE MOBRIDGE DID GET 2" OF MOISTURE ABOUT 10
DAYS AGO, GETTYSBURG FELL SHY OF AN INCH AND LOWERY SDSU MESONET HAS
ONLY PICKED UP 0.17" FOR THE MONTH. GRASSES ON WEBCAMS ARE GETTING
DRY AND WE'VE HAD SOME FIRES ALREADY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, AND DESPITE RAINFALL POTENTIAL (WHICH IS REALLY VERY
LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS) ISSUED A RED FLAG FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES TO
COVER THIS. MVFR/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH HAIL (GR) AND SURFACE GUSTS OVER
60 KNOTS. AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT AND POTENTIALLY AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ MONDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT
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