274
FXUS63 KABR 201745 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40
MPH DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 20%
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, 25-35% ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER THIS MORNING TO POPS.
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE CONTINUED TO
PERSIST ACROSS SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...NOW CONFINED TO
MOSTLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND GONE BY MIDDAY. LOWERED HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON A TOUCH BASED ON ENSEMBLE WARM BIAS TRENDS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 20'S CELSIUS,
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EAST
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WEST.
ALSO, WE'LL BE MONITORING NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 90S AND A DROP IN RH VALUES DOWN CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DRYING FUELS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL SD ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE ARE A COUPLE SMALL CELLS STILL MAKING
THEIR WAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD,
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES. ALSO TODAY, A PLUME OF SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME HAZY SKIES
AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN SD TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD DROPPING TO AROUND
20% THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS WEST RIVER
AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS COMING
WEEKEND AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. HUMIDITY AT THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO RAISE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TUESDAY NIGHT, MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND
THE HIGH, A LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ITS HARD TO SAY
IF ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED, HEAT
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THIS LOOKS TO CUT OFF OUR
CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...VIPOND
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