212
FXUS63 KABR 211500 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH OCCASIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
SD DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
RADAR INDICATES WEAK RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN SD, PER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THAT SEEM TO BE
DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS NORTH CENTRAL SD. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
IS PRETTY LARGE, ON THE ORDER OF 12-14 DEGREES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SD AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THIS AREA. ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL EITHER BE LIGHT OR MAINLY VIRGA.
STILL ADDED IN A 15% POPS OVER CORSON/DEWEY JUST IN CASE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW 70S WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS AGAIN SHOWING SOME
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE BUT THE ONLY EFFECT SHOULD BE A SLIGHT SMOKE
SMELL TO THE AIR. UP ALOFT, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SMOKE AS WELL,
LENDING A SLIGHT HAZINESS TO THE SKY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER, ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO SAY IF ANY STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. HEAT RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS RAN HIGH ON TEMPERATURES IN AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY DURING
THE LAST HEAT WAVE SO WE WILL SEE IF SIMILAR HIGH BIAS SHOWS UP FOR
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ROUND LOOKS TO BE LESS HUMID, SO MODELS MAY
HANDLE IT BETTER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S,
HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK LOOK
TO START A COOLING TREND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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