620
FXUS63 KABR 221743 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SD WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 0.10" ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT EAGLE BUTTE TO CHAMBERLAIN.
- THERE IS A 25-45% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN
0.10" ARE AROUND 30-50% SOUTH OF PIERRE.
- A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO THE LOWER 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
FRESHENED UP POPS AGAIN FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE TO BRING THEM
MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT'S OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE WHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ARE AT DURING THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDERNEATH THAT
THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL SD. MAY HAVE TO DROP
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS IF IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY SUNSHINE WILL
MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATER TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
AS OF 1 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED INTO CENTRAL SD. THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN
0.10" ARE 30 TO 50% ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE BUTTE
TO CHAMBERLAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. HRRR SMOKE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ALOFT
AND A LITTLE AT THE SURFACE. MIGHT HAVE A SLIGHT SMOKEY SMELL TO THE
AIR AND SLIGHTLY HAZY SKIES TODAY BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT PAST THAT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SHOWER WITH MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO RETURN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW
PROMPTING THESE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ALSO MOVED SOUTH. FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EXIST PAST THIS. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
MORE THAN 0.10" OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF PIERRE. A WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN THE LAST ROUND OF HEAT, AT LEAST OVER
CENTRAL SD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 100S. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN SD FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A HIGH
BIAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. THE HEAT SEEMS TO LESSEN GOING
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK BUT STAYS ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. BKN/OVC CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KPIR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRAS AT KPIR THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO MORE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...VIPOND
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