304
FXUS63 KABR 230107 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
807 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A 30-60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY.
- A RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SD HAS FINALLY ENDED AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING THE REGION. HOWEVER, A
PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER HAS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MUCH OF
CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE, THE REGION REMAINS DRY WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THE ONGOING SMOKE ALOFT WHICH IS COVERING THE
ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME DROP IN VIZ HAS BEEN NOTED OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ND THE PAST HOUR OR SO,
HOWEVER, NO DROP IN VIZ OVER OUR CWA FOR NOW AS THIS REMAINS
ALOFT PRODUCING THE ONGOING HAZY SKY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
THEN UPDATES TO POPS AND SKY GRIDS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THAT
PART OF THE STATE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND GONE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGE.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN SD INTO WESTERN NE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS ABOUT A 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEEING A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM STANLEY AND HUGHES
COUNTIES EAST TO SOUTHERN HAND AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THOSE AREAS WHERE CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL HANG TOUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HEAT WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB THERMAL PROGS INDICATE
+19C TO +23C IN OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE
+25C TO +30C FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN SD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN WHERE SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THOSE AREAS BACK INTO CENTRAL ND FOR A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK DOES TOUCH INTO A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL SD. SOME OF THE HI-RES, CAMS AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STORM OR TWO COULD SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN SD FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA, THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S CELSIUS TO LOWER
30S CELSIUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TO THE LOW TO MID 30S CELSIUS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS TO LOW 100S ACROSS CENTRAL
SD ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FROPA
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WHICH MAY TOUCH OFF A STORM OR
TWO ACROSS ND INTO PARTS OF SD. HOWEVER, A STRONGER CAP IS PROGGED TO
BUILD IN WITH 700MB TEMPS REACHING +14C TO +18C ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. SO, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN YET IF ANY FORCING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS CAP. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MID LEVEL OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO AFFECT
KPIR WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION WITH PERIODS OF SMOKE ONGOING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
RESULTING IN HAZE. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN (AND POSSIBLE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY AFFECTING KPIR. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...MMM
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