018
FXUS63 KABR 251919
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH
WINDS (75+ MPH) ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
- HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDICES FROM UPPER
90S TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS WESTERN SD, APPROACHING
THE CWA. ANY STRONGER CORES THAT DEVELOP CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS MAXIMIZED
OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POPS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER TO AROUND 50-70% EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE CAMS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE AREAL COVERAGE, BUT BASED ON WHAT'S HAPPENING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, IT MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE
CHANGES TO MESSAGING/FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
ALSO WATCHING THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY. CENTRAL SD IS
CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 100S AIR TEMPERATURE, WHILE CONDITIONS FARTHER
EAST ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ALTHOUGH, HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OVER THE EAST ARE PUSHING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100. WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAT HEADLINES WITH NO CHANGES AS THE ADVISORY WILL
EXTEND INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SCATTERED TSRA/+TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SD
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KPIR/KMBG
WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY AND VERY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 65-70
KNOTS. KPIR LOOKS TO BE MORE IN LINE TO SEE THIS THAT THE OTHER
TAF SITES.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003>011-
015>023-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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