626
FXUS63 KABR 091714 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. TIMING OF STORMS IS MAINLY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE (1 TO 2" DIAMETER) AND WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE SMOKE AT THE
SURFACE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AS OF 10AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
WY/MT AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
RADAR DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS DRY SO MOST LIKELY NOT HITTING THE GROUND OR IF
SO, JUST LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEWEY AND STANLEY
COUNTIES. GEOCOLOR CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONGOING SMOKE ALOFT
WITH REALLY NO INDICATION OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AS THERE IS NO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OR AIR QUALITY. TEMPS ARE RANGING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL
SD PER WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS ONGOING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL DEALING WITH DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
CAMS ON STORM MODE, INTENSITY, AND OVERALL COVERAGE. DETAILS
WILL BE DISCUSSED WITH THE AFTERNOON BRIEFING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AT MIDNIGHT. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE ABOUT 3.5K
J/KG CAPE IN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30 TO 50KTS FROM ABOUT
2KM THROUGH 8KM DEPTH. THUS, EXPECT SPLITTING SUPERCELL STORMS WITH
A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FOR TODAY THEN, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
NORTH BREEZE WITH DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MIXED WINDS IN BUFKIT ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 15 TO 20KTS WITH AN
EAST TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST, LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE
BECOMES ENHANCED TONIGHT, WITH 1/2KM WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30KTS
ACROSS MOSTLY WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM ADVECTION AT 700MB
AS WELL FOR THE SAME AREA. NAM SHOWS A WEAK WAVE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE ALSO CLIPPING THE
NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A DISCONNECT
BETWEEN EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS PROVIDING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS. WHILE NOT A UNIVERSAL
OUTCOME BETWEEN CAMS, MANY ARE SHOWING STORMS THIS EVENING OUT
WEST RIVER WEAKENING BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET RE-INVIGORATION OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AS WELL AS SOME STORMS DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN, WITH NOCTURNAL STORMS, CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
IN REGARDS TO SMOKE, NOTHING NEW OR EARTH SHATTERING, JUST CONTINUED
ELEVATED SMOKE WITH AGAIN A UNFAVORABLE FETCH FOR MIXING DOWN OR
TRAPPING SMOKE AT THE SURFACE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE WE
ARE STILL UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, THERE IS STRENGTHENING OF
AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR MORE DIRECT FLOW FROM
CANADA AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE LATEST NBM HAS SHIFTED TO A LESS DRASTIC COOL DOWN (RAISED
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES) THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN
ONGOING HAZY SKIES. VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND WILL SWITCH TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT COULD PASS OVER THE KMBG AND KPIR
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS RESULT IN
LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY IN TRACK AND LOCATION OF ANY STORMS
THAT MAY FORM. IF STORMS CAN GROW VERTICALLY ENOUGH AND
STRENGTHEN, THEN LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY 2+ INCHES IN DIAMETER)
AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH IS POSSIBLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...MMM
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