532
FXUS63 KABR 140543 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
- 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS AND SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
ONLY UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO EXPAND 20-30% CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
AS OF 18Z, THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SD. THESE SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING AROUND AND THEN DISSIPATING AFTER NOT TOO LONG. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS A TOUCH OF INSTABILITY, WITH BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SD. THIS COULD HELP WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK & NON-SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD WILL STAY DRY AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD KEPT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SD THROUGH
THE PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. WITH THIS RIDGE MOVING EAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS SWITCHED
TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO PUSH THE WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OUT
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
A BIT OF SMOKE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOUT 5-
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED TO THE
EAST BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP, AS THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOTS
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. THE NAM AND RAP SHOW CAPE
VALUES IN WESTERN SD GETTING UP INTO THE 1000S J/KG WHILE CENTRAL SD
WILL SEE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WHILE THE VALUES ARE A BIT WEAKER,
IT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP STORMS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL SD OR
HAVE STORMS DEVELOP IN WESTERN SD AND THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE LOWER LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES, WHICH
HELPS TO INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE THAT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THEN
THEY WILL STAY NON-SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE STORMS LOOK TO
DISSIPATE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EVEN WEAKER AND THERE
IS NOTHING TO SUPPORT THE STORM, SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
DEVELOP IN ND. A COLD FRONT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO POP UP
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH KPIR COULD FLIRT WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
AS SOME SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THAT TERMINAL. BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE PREVALENT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE BY MID
MORNING AT KPIR/KMBG WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KMBG THROUGH
MIDDAY. KATY COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY SEE MVFR CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...VIPOND
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