498
FXUS63 KABR 150653
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
153 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID/LATE
MORNING MAINLY JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AS OF 1AM, A STORM CLUSTER CONSISTING OF MODERATE RAIN AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO ND WHERE FORCING IS BETTER,
HOWEVER, CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY WEAK WITH DECENT BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 30-40KTS. NONE OF THE CAMS REALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE, EITHER
NOT SHOWING THIS STORM AT ALL OR SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY NOW. SO
IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PER WAA FLOW CONTINUES OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN AS WELL. 00Z ABR SOUNDING
INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING, ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, PER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 700-500MB. THIS IS CAUSING FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SD/WESTERN MN PER LATEST OBS AND WEBCAMS
SHOWING A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND MVFR/IFR CIGS. SO HAVE FOG
MENTION IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW, WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A MORE NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN NEBRASKA TRACKING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL ND WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL SD AND
ITS WEAK LOW LYING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY 12Z, THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO OVER NORTHEASTERN ND/MN WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN SD INTO NE, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW AND EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE AHEAD AND ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN SD/MN
WHERE BETTER FORCING RESIDES, HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION DO VARY BETWEEN THE CAMS SO STUCK MOSTLY TO THE NBM WHICH
KEEPS IT MORE BROADBRUSHED. CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS AND SHEAR UNDER 30KTS, THEREFORE, ANY
STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS
LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN
PER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING PWAT VALUES OF 1.7 TO ALMOST 2", WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA, SO ANY RAIN SHOWER AND/OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
(ESPECIALLY SLOW MOVING) COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY THIS EVENING, THE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS SWITCHING TO ZONAL ALOFT. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CENTER ITSELF OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THIS
HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POPS RETURNING OVER
CENTRAL SD (40-65%) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
EXITS THE REGION, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE REGION BRINGING OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD POPS OF 50-70%. STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS OR WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A
THREAT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RANGING IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. LITTLE BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE COOLING
BACK INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND INCOMING HIGH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SD. FARTHER
EAST, KABR/KATY TERMINALS WILL BE DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS,
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT THESE TERMINALS
BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE MORNING AT KABR
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...VIPOND
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