175
FXUS63 KABR 151816
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM FREDERICK TO
MURDO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO EAST
CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY STAYED
SOUTH OF HWY 212. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MN/SD BORDER. HUMID BUT GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS AND LATENT
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
WHEN THE HIGH EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AND A WEAK
LLJ MAY GIN UP SOME SHOWERS, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT, AND THAT RISK WILL PROBABLY
EXTEND INTO TUESDAY THOUGH LOCATION IS STILL TENUOUS. WHILE ANY SFC
FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH, SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. AT A MINIMUM, THIS ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN
FINALLY SEEMS TO WANE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z AT KABR AND
KATY. FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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