038
FXUS63 KABR 050543 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING AT 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AS OF 12:30 PM CDT, THIS MORNING'S FOG HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF AND IN
ITS PLACE WE HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
ARE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, COOLEST WHERE THE FOG LASTED LONGER, WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WEST RIVER WILL GUST
30-35 MPH AT TIMES WHILE WINDS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 20 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND (30-55%) SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS. SATURDAY, THE RISK COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY, THE RISK COVERS ALL OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND WILL BE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD CAP IN PLACE
WITH 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 DEGREES C, BUT IF STORMS CAN
OVERCOME THIS, THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE. BOTH DAYS THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. MODELS HAVE
MOVED THE TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY UP TO INCLUDE THE
DAYTIME HOURS, PREVIOUSLY THEY HAD A PRETTY MUCH DRY DAY WITH STORMS
STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. POPS IN GENERAL
HAVE BACKED OFF ON SUNDAY AND ARE NOW LESS WIDESPREAD, COVERING
MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY
DOES NOT HAVE AN OUTLOOK YET, BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THERE WILL
BE ONE AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION AND HAS LOTS OF GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWATS ARE STILL IN THE 99.5 NAEFS PERCENTILE
OR ABOVE FOR MOST OF MONDAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
THIS WILL HELP STORMS INTENSIFY AND COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DURING STORMS. THESE STORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS
20 DEGREES THEN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO NEXT WORK WEEK AND
BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE. AFTER TODAY, WINDS LOOK TO BE PRETTY
NORMAL UNTIL MONDAY WHEN GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST SD DURING THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/SHRA AND -TSRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING, AND
PERHAPS BEYOND SUNRISE. KABR/KATY STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
ACTIVITY NEAR/OVER THE TERMINALS, SO HAVE INCLUDED VC (VICINITY)
AND TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR VSBY UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BR/FG AND PATCHES OF IFR
CIGS NEAR KATY UP THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW NOW AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION
AND AREAL COVERAGE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...TMT
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