006
FXUS63 KABR 112301
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
601 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHARP COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14. A COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES
PER HOUR, AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REACH
HIGH FOR ALL COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES AND VERY HIGH
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. MAIN SEVERE THREATS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MILES PER HOUR. A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND POPS BACK INTO THE
WATERTOWN/SISSETON AREAS AS HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST REVEALS
SOME VIGOROUS CU ON SATELLITE, LIKEWISE THE VIGOROUS CU FIELD
IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON THE CLEAR LAKE SDSU MESONET WEBCAM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING, COVERING ALL AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 14. AFTER THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND
THE SFC LOW, DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL NOT RISE. THAT PUTS SOUTHERN HAND COUNTY IN MIN RH OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT. WHILE NOT HITTING STRICT RH CRITERIA IN THE ADDED COUNTIES,
THE 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH TO
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER AND MERITED THE HEADLINE.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSED WITH STORM CHANCES
IN NORTHEAST SD THIS EVENING KEEPING EVERYTHING IN WEST CENTRAL MN
STARTING AT 0Z. STILL, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP AROUND THE COLD
FRONT, IT WILL BE SEVERE. LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF
TIME, THOUGH, WITH THE FROPA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS, ESPECIALLY BACK IN SD.
MUCH COOLER, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES PUSH IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RAIN AND CLOUDS COULD SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES EVEN
MORE, PERHAPS HOLDING THEM IN THE 50S. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK ON
SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 12. THAT'S GENERALLY ASSOCIATED MORE
WITH A POTENTIAL 30 TO 40 KT LLJ AND PASSING SHORTWAVES SUNDAY NIGHT
AS INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE LIMITED OTHERWISE. ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND
COMPONENT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ033-035>037-045-048-051.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07
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