759
FXUS63 KABR 181831
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
131 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE SITTING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CLOUD
DECK WILL CAUSE SOME MISTY CONDITIONS THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES. THESE MISTY CONDITIONS WILL TURN TO FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND COULD CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO BE LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVER CENTRAL SD SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN SD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SD/NORTHEASTERN
NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IT WILL BE TAKING THE RAIN SHOWERS
WITH IT. AS OF 1PM, THESE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF
NORTHEASTERN SD, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRONGER WINDS OCCASIONALLY
AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH,
THE WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE HAVE NOT BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE LOW CLOUD DECK OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AS THE
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT. THIS STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME MISTY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE RADAR HAS
BEEN ABLE TO PICK UP ON THESE MISTY CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE RADAR
AS THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BE DETECTED ON THE RADAR BEAM.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE MISTY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL SD, THE
RADAR IS NOT ABLE TO PICK UP ON THEM BECAUSE THE CLOUDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE RADAR BEAM. THERE WILL BE LOWER VISIBILITIES BECAUSE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MIST, THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1 MILE.
THESE MISTY CONDITIONS AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT
SATURDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL SD. DESPITE CENTRAL SD CLEARING OUT,
NORTHEASTERN SD COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS WORSEN AS FOG DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE AND OVER THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU. VISIBILITIES IN THIS AREA COULD GET BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES. SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE BEING AROUND NORMAL TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS GETTING IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AFTER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
MOVING EAST SATURDAY AND OVER SD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A LEE OF THE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGH FROM WY TO
OVER WESTERN SD SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
STICKING AROUND THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE LIFTING FROM THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL STAY OUT OF CENTRAL SD THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY
AS THEY SIT IN WESTERN SD UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WHEN SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS START TO MOVE OVER AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL SD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAIN SHOWERS THEN LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER,
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES AT KATY AND KABR.
THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK WILL ALSO CAUSE MISTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL BE FAIRLY
LOW FROM THE LOWER CLOUD BASES AND LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM THE
STRATUS DECK. CEILINGS WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN IFR TO LIFR AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL START TO
TURN AND BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...12
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