167
FXUS63 KABR 031531 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1031 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14, OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL IS A BIT
MORE EXPANSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND HAVE BEEN UPDATING
POPS MUCH OF THE MORNING TO INCREASE CHANCES TO 50 OR 60 PERCENT
ALONG WITH EXPANDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER MENTION. EVEN
SEEING POCKETS OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO INCREASE THINGS ALSO. ALL THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM
IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND EXPECTING DRYING
AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER, BUT WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY, STILL HOPING FOR
SOME AFTERNOON/LATE DAY TEMPERATURE SPIKES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THERE WILL BE JUST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WHERE, WITH ABOUT 50KTS
IN THE CRITICAL LAYER, COTEAU DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED. FLOW
ABOVE THIS LAYER IS UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE WEST, SO COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED 50 MPH GUSTS ON THE SOUTHEAST SISSETON HILLS/BUFFALO RIDGE
AREA.
A WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE REGION TODAY, WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DOMINATED BY ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS A WARM NOSE
BELOW THIS INSTABILITY, SUGGESTING ONLY THE STRONGEST ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE AT THE GROUND, THOUGH WITH THE
ADDED WRINKLE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM MICROBURST TYPE BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOWS.
THATS ABOUT IT FOR INTERESTING WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RRFS AND GFS MIXED WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 25
TO 30KTS. PRESSURE RISES ONLY ABOUT 5 MB/6 HOURS. WE REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH TONIGHT SO GRADIENT WINDS WON'T GO SLACK
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING MUCH COOLER THAN 40F. RETURN
FLOW FOR LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WARMEST AIRMASS IS EARLY TUESDAY,
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO +20C BEFORE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE IS WEAK AND MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION, SO SHOULD BE DRY FOR US. NORTHWEST FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING ALOFT THEREAFTER, SO CONDITIONS REMAIN
MID/DRY FOR MID-WEEK TO LATE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ATY FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
PIR TODAY, STAYING WEST OF ATY THIS MORNING, AND EAST OF ABR
THIS AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page