161
FXUS63 KABR 031901
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
201 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST AREA OF LIFT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO
REFLECT RADAR TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND WILL BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. QUICK CLEARING NOTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SO WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
SD IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. NOT A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IT APPEARS, AS THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT STILL RATHER COOL NONETHELESS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS SNEAK INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THIS HIGH GENERALLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE OVERALL
PATTERN LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD. GRAND ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. IT'S TOUGH TO FIND ANY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK, WITH THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT BEING THE MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S, WITH TEMPS FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONE MUST PAY ATTENTION TO HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WE CREEP CLOSER TO THE FALL FIRE SEASON, BUT A
LOOK THROUGH THE WEEK SHOWS WE ARE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AREA OF -SHRA/SHRA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTING KATY AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS HAVE REMAINED VFR WITHIN PRECIPITATION, BUT BRIEF
MVFR VSBY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR AT KATY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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