948
FXUS63 KABR 050529
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE, AND FORECAST IN
SOUNDINGS/NBM SKY COVER. ONLY ABOUT 50MB THICKNESS AT AROUND 700MB,
SO WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM LESS THAN
FULL SUNSHINE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST TODAY. LOCAL DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH BUFKIT PROFILES
INDICATING ABOUT 40KTS IN THE CRITICAL LAYER, AND IT WILL TAKE JUST
BEFORE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH, WHEN WE BRIEFLY ACHIEVE A SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED WIND, TO REALLY TAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE JUST BREEZY WITH
SOUTH FLOW AND 1/2KM WINDS AT ABOUT 25-30KTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION, WITH ENHANCED MIXING ON A NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT. NBM
HIGHS AROUND 80.
THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS MILD ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CURRENTLY DETERMINISTIC EC/GFS/CANADIAN ALL DEPICT
SOME FORM OF RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS FOLLOWED BY A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL
HELP GENERATE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STARTING TO SEE SOME NBM POPS CREEP INTO SAT/SUN BUT ITS
STILL PRETTY FAR OFF TO COME TO ANY FINAL CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE
WEEKEND FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS NEAR 25KTS
ARE EXPECTED 16-23Z AT BOTH ABR AND ATY, WITH GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ATY WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06
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