038
FXUS63 KABR 051852
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
152 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SIGNS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH TEMPS RISING THROUGH THE 70S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING FROM
20 TO 35 MPH FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. FOR TONIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 925MB REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE COTEAU WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE ARE THE
SPEEDS THE MEAN WINDS ARE SHOWING IN REFS, WHILE 95TH PERCENTILE
GUSTS IN REFS ARE CLOSER TO 40 MPH ALONG THE RIDGE LINE AND IN THE
IMMEDIATE DOWNSLOPE AREA. DID DO A BLEND OF 50/50 NBM/NBM90TH FOR
WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE COTEAU/DOWNSLOPE REGION. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. CWA STAYS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT, SO
LOOKING AT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. DID DROP
THE JAMES VALLEY A FEW DEGREES AS MODELS SHOW THIS AREA IN A LULL
WITH WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS, SO PERHAPS A LONGER
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
RATHER WARM AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY ALSO, WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM +17C
TO +20C ACROSS THE CWA. COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEFORE
THEN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AND LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS GO FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME
DEGREE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DID NOT DROP LOWS TOO MUCH
BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, BUT IT DID SEEM LIKE A
SITUATION TO AT LEAST DROP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NBM IN THE
JAMES VALLEY. THIS SURFACE HIGH STAYS OVERHEAD ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND PLEASANT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
MODELS STILL SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMTH ON SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING MEAN 850MB TEMPS FROM +17C
TO +20C ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN, WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE 80TH
TO 90TH PERCENTILE. COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES OR WARMER ON
SATURDAY. STILL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. LATEST NBM TEMPERATURES BRING 50S INTO THE
REGION FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH LOWS STARTING TO CREEP DOWN
INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TONIGHT AT
KATY AND HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF THIS INTO THEIR TAF.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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