095
FXUS63 KABR 081957
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
257 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S (15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH.
- THE HEAT WILL PEAK SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, ABOUT 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TOPPING
25 TO 45 MPH (HIGHEST ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS) RESULTING IN HIGH
TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE EAST.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MAINTAINED A RATHER QUIET AND MILD
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S HAVE BEEN
COMMON. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO DEPART OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES, MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
WHERE TEMPS HAVE REMAINED THE COOLEST.
THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MN AND WI
TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT TREK EAST ACROSS NE. A
FEW CAMS ARE STILL HINTING AT WARM ADVECTION ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD. RRFS/RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT ABOUT 800MB AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. IF ANYTHING WERE TO GET GOING, IT LIKELY WON'T
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA REMAIN IN
A MORE FAVORABLE SPOT.
ON FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL SD BY
THE END OF THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A MORE BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHILE OUR
WEST WILL SEE GUSTS CLOSER TO 30-35 MPH. THIS WILL HELP PULL IN A
WARMER, MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S. EVEN THOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MUTED DUE TO THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THIS WON'T BE THE CASE ON SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PUSHES THAT WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHEST
WINDS WILL PEAK ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN
30-45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU IN NORTHEAST SD. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT RATHER
WARM TO HOT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 80S, WHICH IS
ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME SPOTS WEST RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD COULD HIT 90 DEGREES. THESE READINGS WILL BE MOSTLY SHY
OF RECORD HIGHS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WATERTOWN WHERE 86 IS THE
CURRENT RECORD. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING RECORD WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A CONCERN ON SATURDAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROP INTO A 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES, THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
WILL TOP OUT IN THE HIGH TO POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH CATEGORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
CHANGES IN THIS WARM AND DRY PATTERN RETURN AS EARLY AS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ENCROACH ON
THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL APPEAR
BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
BASICALLY THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING A 30-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COOLER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 20 KTS LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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