886
FXUS63 KABR 091736 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES INCREASE FURTHER ON
SATURDAY, WHERE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 45 MILES PER
HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. THE STRONG WIND AND
HEAT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THAT
AREA, AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- PATTERN CHANGES TO COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF
THE TODAY PERIOD. DID BUMP OF SKY GRIDS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL SD
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME REVERSE DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU IN NORTHEAST SD WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STARTING WITH THE WINDS TODAY, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT STEMMING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. IN THAT AREA, GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 30-35
MILES PER HOUR, WHILE ELSEWHERE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MILES PER HOUR
WILL BE PRESENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, BUT UP INTO THE MID 80S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORDS TO BE SET
TODAY DESPITE THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, ALTHOUGH PIERRE AND ABERDEEN ARE
BOTH WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE FURTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION,
PARTIALLY COMING IN THE FORM OF A 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 25-26 CELSIUS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH IS BOTH ABOUT 10 DEGREE INCREASE FROM
FRIDAY AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NATURALLY, THIS WILL PROVIDE A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE CLEAR SKY, WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANTLY ABNORMAL HEAT, RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST AT MOST SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WATERTOWN FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD OF 86 DEGREES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GENERALLY EXPECTING 25-35 MILES PER
HOUR ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH THIS TIME THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR THESE
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE FROM BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES AND EAST.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL BE COMING FROM A FAVORABLE DIRECTION TO INDUCE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MILES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COTEAU. AT
THIS POINT CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIMITED-AREA WIND
ADVISORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOTHING WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WIND AND HEAT COMBINATION WILL CAUSE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL DROP BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT, SO RIGHT ON THE
BORDERLINE OF THE 25 PERCENT CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. PARTS
OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MAY ALSO NEED A RED FLAG WARNING, AS
HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER,
WHICH COMBINES WITH GUSTS OF 25 MILES PER HOUR. ALL THIS TO SAY,
WATCH OUT FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME ON MONDAY. A SMALL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THESE
SHOWERS, BUT THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING MECHANISM WILL KEEP RAIN
RATES FAIRLY LOW. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO FALL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 10-40%
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, INCREASING AS YOU MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DO
SHOW SOME BORDERLINE POTENTIAL FOR A PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO CARRY
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OR PERHAPS THE SURFACE,
BUT THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AN EDGE CASE. EVEN IF SOME FLURRIES
ARE ABLE TO FALL, CHANCES FOR SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT, SO SHOULD THIS EDGE CASE COME TO BE, THESE
FLURRIES WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY MELT UPON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A DECENT LEVEL OF
AGREEMENT (~62% OF TOTAL MEMBERS) IN A PATTERN THAT WOULD DEVELOP A
COLORADO LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A
HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN TOTALS AT THIS POINT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AND NEAR-
SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THAT PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
SO ALL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SAME CAN'T BE SAID WITH AS MUCH
CERTAINTY ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT, AS PARTS OF THE ABERDEEN
FORECAST AREA HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO REACH BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH A TAD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT ALL
TAF SITES MID TO LATE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AT KABR/KATY WHILE KPIR/KMBG START TO SEE WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THAT SAME TIMEFRAME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...VIPOND
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