271
FXUS63 KABR 091947
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
247 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE WIND AREAS OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
- STRONG WINDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGES TO COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN FACT, ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION
OF THE STRONGER WIND AND LOW RH VALUES LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME SETS UP AS A WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS DIGGING SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NOTICEABLE WEATHER
CHANGES NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT WARM AND DRY PATTERN.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD OUT OF MT AND ND
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SOUTHEAST BREEZES FROM THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH A BIT
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP A MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF OUR ZONES WILL BE A
NICE SET UP TO SEE RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OUT OF EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP DRAW
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ENHANCING THIS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHEAST ND ON SATURDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL WORK INTO
CENTRAL SD SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SETS UP FROM NORTHEAST
ND INTO SOUTHWEST SD BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNSLOPING WIND EFFECT WILL LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDED PATCHY BLOWING
DUST ON SATURDAY TO THOSE AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD THAT WOULD BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE STRONG WINDS KICKING UP DUST, ESPECIALLY OUT
OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS.
WITH A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ESTABLISHING 925MB
TEMPS INTO A +25C TO +30C RANGE, DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE 80S TO LOW 90S. BUMPED UP THESE VALUES ONCE
AGAIN CLOSER TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN HOW ANOMALOUS THIS WARM
AIR MASS WILL BE. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WIND AND THESE TEMPS
WILL DRIVE RH VALUES DOWN INTO A 20-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL
SD AND A 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
THE TRICKY PART TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST IN THIS SITUATION IS
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SD ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS ACROSS OUR EAST REMAIN GUSTY. SO, WE HAVE THE LOWEST RH
IN AREAS WITH LESS WIND BUT HIGHER RH VALUES IN AREAS WITH STRONGER
WINDS. WILL HAVE TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. THE STRONG WINDS ITSELF
ACROSS OUR EAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND HEADLINE, BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL HAVE INCOMING SHIFTS HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT GUIDANCE
TONIGHT AND MAKE THOSE DECISIONS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL SD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND OR
CERTAINLY BY LATE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING SIGNS OF CHANGES TO COME GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THAT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD START SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. EASTERN ZONES
WILL HANG ONTO THE WARMER AIR MASS ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS WITH THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP FALLING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS
STUCK IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ONCE THAT UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL US TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD, STEADIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. WE MIGHT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
WITH THE RIGHT CONDITIONS SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK FOR SOME FROST
INTO PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH A TAD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT ALL
TAF SITES MID TO LATE EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AT KABR/KATY WHILE KPIR/KMBG START TO SEE WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THAT SAME TIMEFRAME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page