041
FXUS63 KABR 100647
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
147 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MILES PER HOUR WILL
IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY.
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
- THE ABNORMAL WARMTH AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, CREATING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
- PATTERN CHANGES TO COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY STEM FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED
MAINLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. STRONG
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL REACH UP TO 25
TO 35 MILES PER HOUR IN THAT AREA, WITH SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
45 MILES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDING
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON, WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM COINCIDING WITH THE LOWEST HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WILL STILL BE
PRESENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ABONRMAL WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON (25+
CELSIUS AT 850MB TRANSLATES TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S) WILL PUSH HUMIDITY DOWN TO 25-35% EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT AREA WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA,
AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER
THE IMPACTS INSTEAD. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL REACH THE HIGH
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF BROWN AND SPINK DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY CAN BE TOLD OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WITH THE DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED OVER
THAT AREA AS WELL, BY THE TIME HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM OUT GUSTS WILL
HAVE DROPPED TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR. THEREFORE, CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL ALSO REMAIN FREE OF ANY HEADLINES, BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE OVER BOTH AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. IN
ADDITION, THE HARVEST SEASON MEANS THAT THESE STRONG WINDS MAY KICK
UP SOME DUST TODAY AS WELL, POSSIBLY CREATING SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL COME ON MONDAY. A
SMALL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS, BUT THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM WILL KEEP RAIN RATES FAIRLY LOW. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN TO FALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, PERHAPS EXTENDING
INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA.
GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING HOLD STEADY AT 10-40%, INCREASING MOVING
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPING A COLORADO LOW INTO THE REGION BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS HAS ONLY GROWN, MEDIAN VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NOW SIT BETWEEN HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MOSTLY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR SOME
FLURRIES TO FLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS KABR/KATY TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED AT KATY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page