869
FXUS61 KAKQ 171846
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THEN A WEAKER HIGH WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS A WARM
FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 955 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.
- DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
(ESPECIALLY) AND TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S NNW, TO THE MID 40S ESE. WARMER ON MON, AS A WEAKER
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ON
MON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY MON NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST DURING TUE, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATER TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- TURNING MUCH COOLER AND BLUSTERY ON THURSDAY
- CONTINUED COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, THE DETERMINISTIC
AND SUPER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST BREAKING DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THU, THEN SLOWLY MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SAT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU
MORNING, ESPLY ACROSS THE NORTH, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD
WITH ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW. THIS SHOULD
MOSTLY MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THU MORNING, WITH COOL AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPLY FRI AND SAT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WED, RANGING THROUGH THE 50S
THU, AND MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI AND SAT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW
WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON MONDAY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS BUT LIKELY
STAYING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG
SCA WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS. ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
CALMER WINDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAINS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST ~10 KT
BECOME W-SW THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER BACK TO THE W-NW ~10-15 KT
FOR MONDAY, THEN AROUND TO THE E-NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ALLOWING THE W-NW WIND TO BECOME N-NE,
BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 15 KT.
S-SE RETURN FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, THEN S-SW ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS TURNING BREEZY
BY WED AFTN, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY.
RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 KT WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST LARGELY STAYS
IN PLACE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES JUMP AND COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH. LOCAL
WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WAVES ON THE BAY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 4 FT ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORING THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER OUT TOWARD THE
10-20 NM END OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES.
STRONG WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH A DECREASING
TREND INTO SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD
LONG TERM...TMG/MRD
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/JAO
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