861
FXUS61 KAKQ 181855
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 355 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MTNS TO THE WSW. UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY DUE TO HIGH
CLOUDS, TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, PROVIDING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS A BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT.
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TUE. UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY, LOWS
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TUE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY
TUE EVENING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AS DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS INCHES EASTWARD. STILL MILD ON TUE, BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. WILL THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM
W TO ESE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SHARPLY S AND SE ON WED AND ESPLY WED NIGHT,
AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST N OF THE LOCAL AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING INTO
EARLY THU MORNING, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESE WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS ALOFT
POTENTIALLY COMPENSATING FOR THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY NOTED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
WED, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WED NIGHT, AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN GUST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED. AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND POPS REMAINING BELOW 15% ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND
SEASONABLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS MOVING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MAIN TERMINALS BUT
REMAIN NW 5-10 KT AT SBY. EXPECT ALL SITES TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: LOWER CIGS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE INTO WED MORNING, ESPLY AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE WED INTO THU
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 355 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH W-NW WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG SCA WINDS
(AT A MINIMUM) ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS WERE W-SW ~10 KT. WAVES
2-3FT, WITH WAVES ~1 FT OVER THE RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER BACK TO THE W, THEN
NW LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AROUND TO THE NNW
THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE, THOUGH REMAINING
GENERALLY LIGHT 10-15 KT. S-SE RETURN FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
LIGHT S-SW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
TO BECOME A BIT MORE BREEZY BY MID-LATE WED AFTN, AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THEN BEGINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WHICH NOW
APPEARS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU. RAPIDLY
INCREASINGLY W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30 KT WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY, AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35-40 KT WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES JUMP AND COLDER AIR SURGES
SOUTH. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU MORNING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVES ON THE BAY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY TO 3-4 FT ON
THURSDAY (TO 5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY), WITH PERSISTENT E SWELL
KEEPING THOSE CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES WILL BE
HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE
TO 3-6 FT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORING THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER
OUT TOWARD THE 10-20 NM END OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONES.
STRONG W-NW WINDS (15-25 KT) PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF (AT
LEAST) STRONG SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...RHR/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/JAO
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