748
FXUS61 KAKQ 200241
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, USHERING IN COLDER, DRIER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 940 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE.
- MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A DEEP TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS
STATES. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW FUNNELING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK/LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND WITH SUB-SATURATED LOW-LEVELS.
HEIGHT FALLS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TONIGHT AND A WEAK
PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL ACT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CAMS ARE BACK AND FORTH REGARDING COVERAGE BUT THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS (POPS
30-40%) ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM-6 AM W OF I-95 AND 3 AM-7 AM E
OF I-95. AS OF NOW, EXPECTING MOST OF OUR NC COUNTIES TO REMAIN
DRY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND ACCUMS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10". OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC LOW WILL KEEP THE
AREA MILDER TONIGHT AND FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.2".
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOCAL AREA WILL SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DESPISE THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL GO THROUGH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL NOTE, THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME HEAVY CONVECTION
ALONG THE LINE AS WELL AS ROUGHLY 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE STRONGER WAA WILL OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS
END QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A BROAD
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION PUTTING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL RAMP UP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE AREAS NEAR
THE COAST WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35
MPH. COLD/DRY ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPS NEAR SUNRISE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE 12Z/19 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A STRONG THROUGH WILL HAVE DOUGH
IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC KEEPING THE REGION IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS
WILL DIE DOWN BY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND THE SURFACE THROUGH EXITS THE AREA. POPS
REMAIN THE FORECAST BUT ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED ALONG THE SHORE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS
DO NOT EXCEED ABOVE 15%. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND SEASONABLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS MOVING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 650 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT THE AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BLANKETED THE REGION, THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HIDING UNDER THE UPPER CLOUD DECK OVER
CENTRAL VA, INCLUDING AROUND RIC. THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS TO LOW- END
VFR OR MVFR LEVELS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CIGS ON
THE MD EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING AT SBY) AFTER 07-09Z OR SO,
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. PREVAILING
IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SBY TAF AND FURTHER
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE CIGS (TO LIFR) MAY BE REQUIRED BASED
ON GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT
RIC BUT DID INTRODUCE A TEMPO IFR GROUP FROM 09-12Z AS A FIRST
ATTEMPT AT CAPTURING THIS POTENTIAL. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
-SHRA AROUND TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES (30-40%) AT RIC AND SBY. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO LINGER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUING. AM EXPECTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, HOWEVER. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SSW.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY, AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LOOK TO LINGER FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.
- A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR W
WINDS BEHIND A COLD STRONG FRONT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CURRENT AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAGGED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~985MB) IS CENTERED OVER
MINNESOTA AND WILL PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT OUT WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY E/SE AT 5-10 KTS ACROSS
ALL WATERS. WAVES AND SEAS ARE 1-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-6 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4-
5 FT.
S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WED
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM W TO E RAPIDLY WITH
AN INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KT WED NIGHT TO EARLY THURS MORNING. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS (EXPECT CURRITUCK SOUND WHICH HAS SCA)
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED FOR GUSTS >34
KT ABOVE 50%. THIS RAPID SURGE WILL BE BRIEF WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING SLIGHTLY THURS MORNING WITH WINDS LEVELING OUT
AROUND 20-25 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH FRI. FRI NIGHT,
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA, ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE BACK
TO GALE FORCE AROUND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. FRI
NIGHT, WIND PROBS ARE GREATER THAN 50% FOR GUSTS >34 KT FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL SEAS. AT THIS TIME, THE SURGES OF STRONGER
WINDS REMAIN SEPARATED TEMPORALLY ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A LONG
DURATION GALE WARNING. INSTEAD, WILL LIKELY HANDLE EACH SURGE
SEPARATELY DEPENDING ON HOW MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. REGARDLESS,
PLAN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST STRONG SCA WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 500 PM EST TUESDAY...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (CRISFIELD AND
BISHOPS HEAD) WITH UP TO ONE FOOT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NUISANCE FLOODING AT
BAYFORD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR COASTAL
FLOODING HEADLINES GIVEN NEARBY GAUGES NOT FORECAST TO REACH
NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WED
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WHICH APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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