573
FXUS61 KALY 201440
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM, BUT A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
9:40 AM UPDATE: MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEARING SKIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND IN THE LAKE GEORGE-
SARATOGA REGION THIS MORNING THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVERAGE IS STILL ON
TRACK TO INCREASE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS DOING WELL FOR
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
UPDATE...AS OF 6:25 AM EST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL
FRONT REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH THE TRUE SFC WARM
FRONT WELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS PA. WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION, WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ERODE
FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATER TODAY, BUT OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO
BE FOR MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT DESPITE A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS (850 TEMPS +6 TO +8C)
OVER THE REGION. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/SKY GRIDS/DEW
POINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A TRANQUIL DAY, WITH OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT...
PREVIOUS
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPER LOW LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA, ALREADY STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW STORM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, THE NEAR-TERM FOCUS WILL BE THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY. EARLY THIS
MORNING, WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS HAVE
RESULTED IN WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH 40S SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR
TWO BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS WE WILL HAVE A WARM AIRMASS ALOFT BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT, BUT LIKELY PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR VALLEY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY, WITH MORE 40S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE THE
UPPER LOW, SFC CYCLONE, AND ITS OCCLUDED FRONT TRACK TOWARDS OUR
REGION LATER TODAY, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTIES FROM 4 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY*
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...UPPER LOW SLIDES THROUGH MICHIGAN AND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW WEAKENS OVER
MICHIGAN. ITS OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT, AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NJ COAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, BUT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERN NY/PA AS IT IS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. THERE HAS
BEEN A SHIFT IN GUIDANCE FOR THE SFC LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION, AND COULD LEAD TO THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT REDUCING QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT DID APPEAR THAT
SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES THAT TUGGED THE SFC LOW TOO FAR TO THE EAST, SO THIS
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE DOES APPEARS TO BE A VERY PLAUSIBLE
OUTCOME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 TO
1500 FT IN ELEVATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW CONTINUE TO SIT OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, AND PRECIP BECOMES MORE SHOWERS IN NATURE FRIDAY.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM
THE STORM SYSTEM. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 0.75 TO 1.5 IN OF
LIQUID PRECIP, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE E/SE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS RAIN WILL BE
MUCH-NEEDED GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. AS FOR THE SNOW, THIS
WILL BE A HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT STORM. EASTERN CATSKILLS
SEEM TO BE FAVORED TO SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH THE COLD AIR
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY AROUND BIG INDIAN WILDERNESS AND SLIDE
MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-10" WE
DETERMINED PER COLLABORATION WITH WPC AND WFO BGM THAT WE DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH, AND THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. THE SNOW WILL BE OF A WET/HEAVY
CONSISTENCY, AND SOME POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE
SNOW BRINGING DOWN TREE LIMBS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MAIN TIMEFRAME
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE CATSKILLS, UP TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
ADIRONDACKS, BUT MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES HERE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN FOR VALLEY AREAS FRIDAY MORNING, LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BOTH BEGIN TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE EAST. WE REMAIN IN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
SATURDAY, BUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING, A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS
ALOFT, AND NW FLOW TRAJECTORIES, THIS LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK
TO RESULT IN MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
COOL AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS)
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESIDUAL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE UPPER-LOW LOOKS TO
REACH EASTERN MAINE/SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CANADA INFLICTING A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THROUGHOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITHIN ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PULSING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW AND PERSISTENT VORTICITY ADVECTION ABOUT THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT VERTICAL ASCENT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN OR NEAR THE DIVERGENT, RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY AS A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST-
ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID
30S IN THESE AREAS WILL PROMOTE SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (>=
2000 FT) OF THESE AREAS WITH RAIN, WITH SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED
IN, BELOW THE HIGHEST PEAKS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT HELPS TO OVERCOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AND
NEAR THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL NOT EXCEED A
COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST.
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS
IN, ANY SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS A RESULT OF
THIS TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ELSEWHERE. WEAK RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN REGIONWIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW/MID 30S.
TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK RIDGE BECOMES WEAKENED BY A CLOSED LOW NEARING OUR OVERHEAD
JUST SOUTH OF THE JAMES BAY AREA. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES,
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE MAXIMIZED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S ABOVE 2000 FT) WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL
TO THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH MID- TO LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUING
TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SKY COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING
STORM SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, THOUGH A GRADUAL LOWERING
TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ONSET ANTICIPATED BETWEEN
05-09Z. KPOU WILL BE THE FIRST TO OBSERVE RAIN FOLLOWED BY KPSF,
KALB, AND KGFL. PROB30S WERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THIS
EXPECTATION. RAIN WILL BEGIN LIGHT SO VFR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED AT AND JUST AFTER ONSET, THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR HEIGHT THRESHOLD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL FOLLOW THE LIGHT ONSET, LEADING TO MVFR
VISIBILITY TO MATCH MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 45 TO 55%, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, PER
COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX AND STATE PARTNERS IN CT/MA, AN SPS
WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CT/MA FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD PUT
AN END TO ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN/WEBB
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN
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