855
FXUS61 KALY 171804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK. THE NWS HEATRISK IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
2) THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
3) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK BRINGING THE WARMEST AIRMASS SINCE LAST SUMMER TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
(INCREASING TO +15 TO +18C) WILL RUN AROUND +2 TO +2.5 STDEV
THROUGH TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST AREAS THEN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S
ON TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD
REACH THE MID-90S ON TUESDAY. WHILE RECORD HIGHS WILL NOT BE
CHALLENGED ON MONDAY, THEY COULD BE CHALLENGED ON TUESDAY.
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE DISPLAYED IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER TO
LOCALLY MID-60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX (FEELS- LIKE
TEMPERATURES) TO BE CLOSE TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND GENERALLY
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THESE HOT CONDITIONS HAVE
RESULTED IN THE NWS HEATRISK TO BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS CATEGORY AFFECTS THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION, AND SOME HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. THE
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH MORE INFORMATION ON THIS IN KEY MESSAGE 2.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS.
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. MOST
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE IS NOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THIS
SCENARIO, THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE FOCUSED FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE
SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. TEMPERATURES COULD
WIDELY VARY ON WEDNESDAY PENDING THE FRONTAL LOCATION WITH
CURRENT FORECAST VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN CT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S). HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST DAYS. MOST
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE BRINGS A RETURN TO RAINFALL SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY DOMINANT ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DURATION OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE, THOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH. KGFL IS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE, THOUGH
LOW PROBABILITY, TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS A RESULT, SO A
PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 10-15KT AND GUSTS UP TO
20-25KT. AS WE LOSE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING TONIGHT,
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AGAIN TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
MAY 19
ALBANY, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 1989
GLENS FALLS, NY: 88 DEGREES SET IN 1989
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...31
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