554
FXUS61 KALY 180643
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
WINDS/WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR TUE THROUGH WED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MID WEEK, AS COOLER TEMPS RETURN LATE WED-THU.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK. THE NWS
HEATRISK IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.
2) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASES TUE PM INTO WED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE PM/EARLY EVENING AND ALSO WED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
3) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY-TUE. THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
THIS MORNING, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH, AS A WARM
FRONT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.
LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE 1-2+ STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL
BASED ON THE LATEST NAEFS. H850 TEMPS WILL RISE 2-3 STDEVS ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUE WITH THE ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE +15C TO +19C RANGE.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE
VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEAT
INDICES/APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. AN
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER/T-STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE PM/EARLY EVENING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT IN THE 60S WITH
SOME UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO RUN WARM AND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUE INVOLVES
BLENDING WITH PERSISTENCE/PREV FX AND TRIMMING BY A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON H850 TEMPS +16C TO +19C WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S (SPOTTY MID 60S) WAS CONSIDERED WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND 80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. SOME RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN ON TUE (SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAY HIT
APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDICES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPS) IN THE MID-90S,
BUT THE AIR TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE APPARENT TEMPS. NO HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE HOT CONDITIONS
WITH SOME MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE CAUSE THE NWS HEATRISK
TO BE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUE (SPOTTY IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
THIS CATEGORY AFFECTS THE POPULATION THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING SYSTEMS/HYDRATION, AND SOME
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES. THE HEAT SUBSIDES BY WED WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SPC
CONTINUES A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT.
SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON (MID TO LATE PM)
AND IT EXTENDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES NOT
LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AT 25-35 KT, BUT MLCAPES MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY ALONG OR NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE
SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE LATEST
ARW-WRF 1 & 2 SUPPORT MORE COVERAGE THAN THE 3-KM NAM OR HRRR.
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS CAPPED WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING
TUE NIGHT. IT BECOMES BREEZIER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE INSTABILITY WANES TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT TRICKY FOR WED. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS THE FRONT
NEAR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, SOUTHERN VT AND THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS IN THE LATE MORNING EARLY PM AND MOVING SOUTH QUICKLY.
THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WED EARLY
PM ARE SURPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES TOWARDS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND I-84 CORRIDOR. A FEW T-STORMS COULD BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE CLOSER TO THIS AREA. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH. MAX TEMPS MAY RANGE FROM THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK/SOUTHERN DACKS TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THE
CAPITAL REGION WAS FAVORED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MUCH
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WED NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACK PARK, AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS THERE MAY 21ST. A
1030 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
CONTINUES THU NIGHT THRU FRI WITH SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS POTENTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS A WARM FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO KGFL BETWEEN 10Z-14Z/MON, AND
AGAIN 00Z-03Z/TUE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY LATE MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
AFTER SUNSET AT 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
MAY 19 - TUESDAY
ALBANY, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 1989
GLENS FALLS, NY: 88 DEGREES SET IN 1989
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...31
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