588
FXUS61 KALY 190531
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME, WITH
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
MARGINAL RISK FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN THREAT LOOKS
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY. HEAT RISK SLIGHTLY
INCREASED, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY. SOME PARTS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND NW CT MAY SEE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY APPROACH 95 DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH HEAT RISK VALUES IN THE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR CATEGORY, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
2) AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
3) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 850
HPA TO RISE TO +15 TO +19 C ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS
WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE MID 60S, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
EXCELLENT MIXING TO ABOUT 775-800 MB, WHICH MAY HELP LOWER
DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL, A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND A SOUTHWEST WIND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY FOR
MID MAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES
FOR THE DATE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE MIXING, SO THE HUMIDITY WON'T
BE QUITE MID SUMMER LEVELS. STILL, ANYONE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
ON TUESDAY WILL NEED TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY SINCE
IT'S EARLY IN THE SEASON AND MANY PEOPLE AREN'T USED TO THIS
EXTREME HEAT JUST YET THIS YEAR. WPC HEAT RISK IS STILL
WIDESPREAD IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4), ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ARE STARTING TO APPEAR FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT'S BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WON'T GO WITH ONE JUST
YET DUE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY BELOW 95 DEGREES, BUT IT'S
RATHER CLOSE.
WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH, MOST AREAS WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPS AND A DRIER AIR MASS STARTING TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. A MODERATE HEAT RISK IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH HIGHS STILL APPROACHING 90 BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES WILL STILL BE A CONCERN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. OUR AREA WILL ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH 30-40 KTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR TO START, THEY MAY START TO
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS GET
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS DUE TO THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE, WITH MODEL VALUES SHOWING ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG.
CAMS SUGGEST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION BEGINNING IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEAST FOR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE I-90/CAPITAL REGION CORRIDOR BY LATER IN THE DAY AS
WELL. 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND CAMS
HAVEN'T BEEN SUGGESTING MUCH ORGANIZATION, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM ON TUESDAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY JUST ALONG OR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTS
THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOUT 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR WITH SBCAPE IN
THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY, TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ONCE AGAIN,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. ANY THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE FRONT EXITING OUR
AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY
INTO THE LATE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH EXACT QPF, TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIP IS STILL IN
QUESTION. MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED THIS COULD BE A SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH HAVEN'T BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS JUST YET. WITH
STEADY RAINFALL AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS, TEMPS COULD BE HELD DOWN
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE RAINFALL, WHICH MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY
WEEKEND PLANS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/WED, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF BETWEEN 18Z-23Z/TUE. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PASSING
DOWNPOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND INCREASE TO 8-15 KT BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 30-40 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/WED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
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