424
FXUS61 KALY 191056
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN UNSEASONABLE WARM AND MODERATE HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TODAY. HEAT INDICES/APPARENT
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FOR EASTERN
ULSTER AND WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES SUPPORT A HEAT ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT RISK IS MAINLY MODERATE BUT SOME AREAS IN
A MAJOR CATEGORY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
CONVECTIVE THREAT CONTINUES TODAY, THOUGH COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF
SEVERE T-STORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH THE GREATEST RISK. MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT RISK VALUES IN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR CATEGORIES.
2) ISOLATED-SCATTERED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL DISTURBANCE AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ADDITIONAL
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED PM, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THERE IS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE
TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
3) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS EXPECTED THU-FRI WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF ANOMALOUS WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. H850 TEMPS ARE MAINLY +2 TO +3 STDEVS
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE FORECASTS AREA. THE ACTUAL H850
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +16C TO +19C RANGE ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE, WHICH SUPPORT WITH SOME DEEPER MIXING WITH THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER AND SPOTTY MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN TODAY FOR KALB/KGFL AND SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH COULD CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 90-95F
RANGE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WE DID NOT GO
QUITE AS WARM AS THE BASELINE NBM BUT CLOSER TO THE PREV
FORECAST AND THE EC/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ACTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S THIS PM, BUT STILL THERE IS ENOUGH COVERAGE
AREA WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S FOR EASTERN ULSTER AND
WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM
11 AM TO 7 PM TODAY. THE HEAT INDEX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HOT TEMPS AND HIGH OR
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY CAUSE HEAT ILLNESSES AND LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS. STAY COOL AND HYDRATED, SINCE THIS WARM SPELL IS EARLY
IN THE SPRING. THE WPC HEAT RISK IS MAINLY IN THE MODERATE
RANGE (LEVEL 2 OF 4), BUT THE AREAS IN THE ADVISORY AND ALSO
SPOTTY AREAS IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND NW CT ARE IN THE MAJOR
RANGE (LEVEL 3 OF 4). HEAT ADVISORIES IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA
OF NYS ARE ISSUED FOR HEAT INDICES OF 95F TO 104F. RELIEF COMES
OVERNIGHT INTO WED, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALBANY AND CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A MODERATE HEAT
RISK, BUT AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE MID-HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTREME ON WED BASED
ON A HEAT RISK THAT IS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN
DACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH MAY INITIATE SOME CONVECTION IN THE EARLY TO MID PM. THE
LATEST HREFS INDICATE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND MEAN SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS HIGHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WARMER AIR OCCURS ALOFT UNDER
THE RIDGE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT, THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES WITH DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SOME CAMS
HAVING MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG, WHILE MORE ROBUST CAMS WITH
HIGHER DEWPTS HAVE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. THE HRRR AND EVEN THE
3-KM NAMNEST HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST, WHILE THE WRF-ARW2 AND THE
HRW- NSSL CAMS HAVE MORE COVERAGE WITH A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC TROUGH MAY AID IN SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FROM BOWING SEGMENTS. IF A
CLUSTER OR SMALL LINE GETS GOING FROM MULT-CELLS, THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD SUPPORT THE SLIGHT RISK BETTER, ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, AS THE
COLD FRONT PRESSES FORWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOWS WILL BE MUGGY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOME
UPPER 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
ISOLATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
EXISTS. THE HREFS AND SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATE SBCAPES COULD BE
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO I-84 IN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-40 KT FOR AN ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. COOL AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SOME HIGHS
CLOSE TO 90F ARE POSSIBLE NEAR I-84. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE BY THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING
QUICKLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK MAY FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. IT WILL BE BREEZY WED NIGHT INTO THU
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR THU. IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, AS MAX TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILL
TOWNS WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE MTNS. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID/UPPER 30S. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FROST IN THE SOUTHERN DACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS. ONE MORE DRY DAY
AT LEAST ON FRI WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SOME INCREASE OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LATE THE DAY FROM I-90 SOUTH, AS TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THU WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRI NIGHT INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND POTENTIALLY LOOKS UNSETTLED
AT LEAST ON THE WEEKEND (SAT-SUN), AS A WARM FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND THE EXACT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. OUR LATEST FORECAST SHOWS
60-80% CHANCES OF RAINFALL SAT INTO EARLY SUN AT THIS TIME.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY COME BY MEMORIAL DAY. THE RAINFALL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/WED, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF BETWEEN 18Z-23Z/TUE. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY PASSING
DOWNPOURS. IF ANY AREAS RECEIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING DOWNPOURS,
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, HOWEVER OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AND INCREASE TO 8-15 KT BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AFTER
SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY THROUGH DAYBREAK AS
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS,
WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO 30-40 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER
03Z/WED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
MAY 19 - TODAY
ALBANY, NY: 91 DEGREES SET IN 1989
GLENS FALLS, NY: 88 DEGREES SET IN 1989
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 96 DEGREES SET IN 1962
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...31/15
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