757
FXUS61 KALY 202332
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK BRUSHING INTO
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, BUT HIGHER RISK FOR STORMS
TODAY LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH, BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH
NO PRECIP.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND SOME CLEARING FINALLY OCCURRING,
HAVE BLENDED THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WITH SOME LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, HAVE INCLUDED SOME FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING PRECIP
START ON SATURDAY, HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS
ON SATURDAY, AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO IMPACT FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WITH A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
2) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
3) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EXACT TIMING, DURATION AND AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NYS MESONET SHOWS A NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 40S AND
50S ALREADY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION, SOUTHERN VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. HOWEVER,
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT CONTINUE
TO SEE HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS SOLID OVER SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH VALUES IN THE
30-40 KT RANGE. AT THE MOMENT, THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY STEEP AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS APPROACHING QUICKLY
AND THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOWERING THESE LAPSE
RATES SOON.
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EASTWARD.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTHWARD, SO IT WILL BE A
RACE BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY. BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, MOST OF THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION COULD
SCRAPE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA (DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY). THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AS WELL AS
PROBABILITY FIELDS FROM THE 17Z SPC WOFS OUTPUT. STILL, WITH
THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD
SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS,
ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO EXIST ONLY BRIEFLY, AS THE APPROACHING
FRONT, WILL BE LOWERING INSTABILITY AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS AS
IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A BRIEF THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE THREAT IS A
HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS PA, NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS NOTICEABLY LOWER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE VERY DRY, AS WELL, WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY, SO THERE STILL WILL BE
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
SOME CLEARING WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, HAVE GONE LOWER THAN NBM TEMPS AND BLENDED
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE INTO THE FORECAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR MIN
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CATSKILLS, GLENS FALLS AREA, TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW ZONES.
TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM UP ON FRIDAY WITH A COMFORTABLE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 30S. SOME CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
LATE AS THE FRONT STARTS HEADING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE RAINFALL CAN GET. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
THE NBM FOR SATURDAY FOR POPS, BUT DID LOWER POPS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS BASED OFF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BE
A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAINFALL AND NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL WHEN THE
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF, BUT THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER AT SOME POINT FOR SUNDAY. STILL, IT'S UNCLEAR IF
APPRECIABLE CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS WELL. THIS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT COULD
LINGER INTO PART OF MONDAY AS WELL. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE DAY ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER THAN
THE WEEKEND, BUT IT STILL PROBABLY WON'T BE IDEAL MEMORIAL DAY
WEATHER. WITH SOME DIFFERENCES STILL IN THE MODELS, THIS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AND SOME CHANGES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
KPOU LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. RAIN WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER SITES.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KT. ANY HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33
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