889
FXUS61 KALY 211910
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
ALBANY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A VERY LOW RISK
FOR FLOODING IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AS A COLD AIR MASS IS
OVERHEAD. ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS, THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINS TODAY WHERE WE WILL BE ISSUING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE
2026 SEASON. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND CALM WINDS IN STORE,
WIDESPREAD FROST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS,
MOHAWK VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, SCHOHARIE VALLEY,
HELDERBERGS, NORTHERN TACONICS, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO LOW 30S. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE BECOMING
BETTER IN AGREEMENT FOR THE START TIMING FOR THIS WEEKEND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AND FOR THE EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
RANGE TO BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN
CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE
TOTALS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. A GOOD SOAKING
RAINFALL, BUT A DREARY SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO MEMORIAL DAY IS
IN STORE. WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO PERIODICALLY MODERATE RAINFALL,
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS FORECAST TIME. WHILE
THE MORNING HOURS ON MEMORIAL DAY HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(LESS THAN 50%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD EASTWARD, CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING AT KPOU OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE N/NE STARTING OFF THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR KPSF WITH WINDS OUT OF THE N/NW, AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE NE/E AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU. OTHERWISE, HIGH
CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047-048-051-054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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