697
FXUS61 KALY 221721
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE ENDED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED
FIRST KEY MESSAGE TO REFLECT CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME PATCHY FROST CAN'T BE RULED OUT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRODNACKS.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE START TIME ON SATURDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
THEN SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
ALOFT AND THE HIGH NEARBY, LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP UP
COMPLETELY DRY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A
NICE DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR
VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN /
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AGAIN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR HAMILTON AND WARREN COUNTIES. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
WFO BTV TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING, THOUGH, GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING
OVERHEAD WHILE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. AT THE SFC, ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO
OUR WEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ TO AROUND 45 KT WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
REGION, WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 1-1.25" SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP WITH A BAND OF SLOPING
FGEN AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT, SO THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES, WITH THICKENING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH MID
MORNING, THEN EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND
AND AFTER SUNSET.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW EARLY RAIN BEGINS SATURDAY. WITH STRONG
UPPER CONFLUENCE AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING RAIN SHIELD, WE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING THE RAIN IN SATURDAY. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, BUT FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT RAIN MAY VERY WELL HOLD
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AFTER DARK. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE CONFLUENCE ALOFT STRENGTHENS BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS SOMEWHAT, LIKELY
DUE TO THE SMALL WAVELENGTH OF THIS FEATURE, SO ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF RAIN SATURDAY MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, WITH 50S FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS THAT SEE MORE
RAIN TO MID AND UPPER 60S FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE FILTERED
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BETTER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT REACHES THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE CHILLY, AND WE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NBM WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE FOR 40S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID 50S
FOR VALLEY AREAS, AND THESE TEMPS MAY EVEN BE GENEROUS. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND
OR JUST UNDER A HALF INCH FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS TO UP TO AROUND AN
INCH AND A HALF NEAR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BORDER WITH BGM AND OKX.
WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, RAINFALL RATES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR ANY
SHORT-FUSE HYDRO CONCERNS, AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TOO LOW
FOR ANY FLOOD CONCERNS NOW THAT WE ARE MOSTLY GREENED-UP. IN FACT,
THIS RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE BENEFICIAL WITH MANY PLACES ACROSS THE
REGION HAVING NOT SEEN ANY RAIN IN THE LAST 5-7 DAYS.
WHILE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT, TRACKING OVER OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. MONDAY MORNING IS NOW LOOKING ON THE WETTER SIDE, ALTHOUGH
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. MONDAY
WILL AT LEAST BE WARMER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S (TERRAIN)
TO LOW 70S (VALLEYS) EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND NORTHWESTERLY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PUT
US BACK INTO A DRIER PATTERN. WHILE THE NBM/WPC LONG TERM FORECAST
IS SHOWING TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, THIS IS WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND SEEMS
TO BE AT LEAST A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM GIVEN THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF OUR
REGION. UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOW 80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-WEEK HIGHS, WITH THE DRYING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 KFT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH WILL
MENTION PROB30 AT KPOU FOR SPOTTY -RA DEVELOPING BETWEEN 16Z-18Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST ROUND 5-10 KT
THROUGH TODAY, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/05
AVIATION...07
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