261
FXUS61 KALY 230513
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
113 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LOWERED THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS.
FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, DUE TO WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 5 TO 10
MPH, CLOUDS INCREASING, AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, CHANCES FOR
PATCHY FROST HAVE LOWERED TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR FLOODING IMPACTS.
2) WARMING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START TIMING FOR THIS WEEKEND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THEN IN THE
EVENING HOURS SATURDAY, FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, 24-HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RANGE TO BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ENDING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS WHERE TOTALS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL, BUT A DREARY SUNDAY AND
BEGINNING TO MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE. WITH A STEADY LIGHT TO
PERIODICALLY MODERATE RAINFALL, ANY FLOODING CONCERNS ARE VERY
LOW AT THIS FORECAST TIME. WHILE THE MORNING HOURS ON MEMORIAL
DAY HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD EASTWARD, CONDITIONS
BECOME DRIER FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE LOWERED FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AS IT STRUGGLES TO CATCH-UP WITH LATEST ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND FORECAST TRENDS OF OVERCAST SKIES
AND VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DUE TO THE RAIN FOR SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S. A
CHILLY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
CURRENT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS HOW WARM WE GET
IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THIS COULD BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
MUCH DRIER AIR OVERHEAD. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES THREE TO FIVE DEGREES TOO WARM ABOVE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND WITH COORDINATION, TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND FAVORED
FORECAST FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WE'LL SEE SEASONAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM
OUR NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THROUGH DAYBREAK, IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH NO PRECIP, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE BKN-OVC AT 10-25 KFT.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z AT KPOU AND 21Z AT
KALB/KPSF. WHEN PRECIP BEGINS, BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR, BUT AFTER A FEW HOURS, VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. FURTHER NORTH, KGFL MAY STAY
DRY TILL ABOUT 00Z, BUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT, SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR MVFR RAINFALL
THERE. A STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE TIME, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE THE
LOW LEVELS GET SATURATED.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SIMILAR SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page