465
FXUS61 KALY 231024
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY 4-6 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NOW
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AS CALM WINDS AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. ADDED
SOME (VERY) PATCHY FROST BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. ALSO ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN FROM
THE NBM EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FINALLY, BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BENEFICIAL 0.5 TO 1.5" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
2) TRENDING WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY,
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:15 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1033 MB SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER E/SE QUEBEC, CENTERED BENEATH STRONGLY
CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC HIGH AND THE FACT THAT HIGH CLOUDS REMAINED
VERY THIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES DROPPED A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN THESE AREAS PER LATEST
NYS MESONET OBS. GIVEN THIS, SOME LOCALIZED, PATCHY FROST CAN'T
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THICKEN FOR THESE AREAS,
SO TEMPERATURES SHOULDN'T DROP MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM
CURRENT READINGS.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY TRACKING INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES, AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF RAIN
ACROSS PA RIGHT NOW, BUT GIVEN STRONG CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO VERY DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR AS SEEN ON THE
00Z KALY SOUNDING, IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR PRECIP TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION. GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON START
TIMING OF RAIN TODAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
BEGIN AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, AND THEN OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH AND EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, ALTHOUGH
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST WILL BE COOLER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, PRIMARY SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A STRENGTHENING SE LLJ WILL LEAD TO AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERLAP WITH A SLOPING BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW, COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH/SECONDARY LOW WILL
DEVELOP, AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.1-1.3" WITH FORCING MECHANISM TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION. RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY, TAPERING TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR DAMMED AT THE SFC, SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL, AS HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S (VALLEYS). WE COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY FROM THE NBM AS IT
STILL SEEMS TOO WARM, EVEN THOUGH IT IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CATCH
ONTO THE COOLER SOLUTION WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.
BY THE TIME RAIN TAPERS OFF SUNDAY EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND OR JUST UNDER A HALF INCH FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS
TO UP TO 1.5" FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WITH MANY AREAS HAVING NOT SEEN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE LAST
WEEK OR SO, THIS WILL BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
THUNDER TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH A TONGUE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (SHOWALTER VALUES <0) REACHING INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW NON-SEVERE RUMBLES OF THUNDER
IN THE EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN
SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FORCING. NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN THE
WETTEST, WHILE CMC/EURO HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE STILL SEEING
SOME RATHER LARGE RUN-RUN JUMPS WITH THE RELEVANT UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES IN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW, BUT WILL MENTION THAT CURRENT LINE
OF THINKING LEANS SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF GFS/NAM, EVEN IN THEIR QPF
SEEMS OVERDONE. FORTUNATELY, SHOWERS CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 60S (TERRAIN) TO 70S (VALLEYS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INITIALLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGING
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY, FORMING AN OMEGA BLOCK
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, NBM ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER-ESTIMATING HIGH TEMPERATURES, SO WE TRENDED
THE FORECAST LOWER IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
(TUE) AND WPC (WED). WEDNESDAY HIGHS MAY BE TRENDED EVEN LOWER
FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
MEX/ECM GUIDANCE.
WHILE WE DRY OUT TUESDAY, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITHIN THE NW FLOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME
POINT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT, WEDNESDAY SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. WILL LIKELY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
COINCIDES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COOLER,
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED NW FLOW MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES AS WELL
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, WITH FEW-SCT CIGS AROUND 12 KFT AND A
BKN-OVC HIGH DECK AROUND 20-25 KFT. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN PA AND NJ.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OFF DRY, THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FOR TODAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 16Z AT KPOU AND 21Z AT
KALB/KPSF. WHEN PRECIP BEGINS, BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR, BUT AFTER A FEW HOURS, VISIBILITY AND
POSSIBLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. FURTHER NORTH, KGFL
MAY STAY DRY TILL ABOUT 00Z, BUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THAT, SO WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR MVFR
RAINFALL THERE. THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN MAY LET UP TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER AND
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES BY THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DOWN TO SOLID MVFR FOR ALL SITES,
AND SOME IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THAT WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY FOR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT SIMILAR SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
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