474
FXUS61 KALY 231837
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
237 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH MONDAY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND INCREASED WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THEN,
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING COLD AIR WEDGED NEAR THE SFC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A UNIFORM AREA OF STRATIFORM
FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 WITH A SHARP NORTHERN CUT-OFF
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A STRONG AREA
OF CONFLUENCE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OH/MI
BORDER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE MAIN SFC WARM FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS, THE LEADING EDGE OF
A REGION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FGEN HAS ADVANCED THROUGH
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS, AND NW CT WITH THE NYS MESONET SHOWING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO AROUND TWO TENTHS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS HAS ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS OF 1 PM. THE
INCOMING RAIN SHIELD HAS SINCE "HIT THE BRAKES" AS IT NEARS THE
CAPITAL REGION GIVEN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITH AREA FROM
ALBANY NORTH AND EASTWARD DRY, CLOUDY, AND SEASONABLY COOL IN
THE LOW 60S. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FOR
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 18 - 21 UTC
AS THE MID- LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD. STILL, THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTY AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHERN VT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNSET AS THEY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MAIN FORCING.
THE WETTEST TIME PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE REGION LOOKS TO BE FROM
06 UTC TONIGHT THROUGH 18 UTC TOMORROW AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN FINALLY PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY 40-45KT JET IN THE 925 - 850HPA LAYER DIRECTING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION. PWATS SURGE TO 1 -
1.3" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEARING 10KFT. EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF STEADY, MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90, THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TURNS BREEZY TOWARDS AND AFTER 06
UTC TONIGHT THANKS TO THE INCOMING JET AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS REACHING 25 TO 30KTS. AFTER
18 UTC TOMORROW, THE STRONGEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ESCAPES TO OUR EAST AS A SECONDARY WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST. RAIN BECOMES LIGHTER AND SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A RAW,
CHILLY LATE MAY DAY AS WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND
EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC. IN
FACT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE 50S. LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE
FOR 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY WITH EVEN A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1.25" IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND NW CT. LUCKILY, NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED
GIVEN RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SOUTH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND FINALLY LIFTS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
TRACKS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE
NORTHEAST ACTUALLY BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK WITH FALLING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN A WEAK
SFC LOW IN WESTERN NY THAT DRAGS A SFC COLD FRONT EASTWARD LATE
MON A.M INTO THE EARLY P.M. WHILE WE BRIEFLY ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE RATHER EARLY ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP. SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAINING SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENSUING
LEADING TO A WARM AND PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON RISING
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2..TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BOTH
DAYS. WHILE THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR AN OMEGA BLOCK TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA DIVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS STATED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, THIS CAN RESULT IN OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THEN
TREND COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED
NW FLOW RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUNDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EVEN
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALREADY AT KPOU. KENX RADAR SHOWS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD JUST BEGINNING TO REACH KALB AND KPSF AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS
SHOWERS MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z AS ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUE
FOLLOWED NEXT BY KPSF WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY AREAS OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING AROUND 23Z. KALB VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AROUND 00Z AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE STEADY. KGFL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR AND DRY THE LONGEST UNTIL RAINFALL LOWERS VIS TO MVFR
TONIGHT AFTER 03Z. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE INITIAL BATCH OF
RAIN MAY SLIGHTLY LET UP TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT KALB AND KPSF AROUND 10-15
KT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT KGFL AND KPOU ARE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5-10 KT.
WINDS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND PICK UP
AGAIN 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MEMORIAL DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
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