370
FXUS61 KALY 240508
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH MONDAY TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND INCREASED WINDS FOR TONIGHT IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. THEN,
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING COLD AIR WEDGED NEAR THE SFC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AD OF 237 PM...LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A UNIFORM AREA
OF STRATIFORM FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 WITH A SHARP NORTHERN
CUT-OFF AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A
STRONG AREA OF CONFLUENCE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE OH/MI BORDER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE MAIN SFC WARM
FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS, THE LEADING
EDGE OF A REGION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FGEN HAS ADVANCED
THROUGH THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT WITH THE NYS MESONET SHOWING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS UP TO AROUND TWO TENTHS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS HAS ACCUMULATED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS OF 1 PM. THE
INCOMING RAIN SHIELD HAS SINCE "HIT THE BRAKES" AS IT NEARS THE
CAPITAL REGION GIVEN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITH AREA FROM
ALBANY NORTH AND EASTWARD DRY, CLOUDY, AND SEASONABLY COOL IN
THE LOW 60S. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FOR
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARDS 18 - 21 UTC
AS THE MID- LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FGEN/MOISTURE
SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD. STILL, THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY,
NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTY AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHERN VT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNSET AS THEY REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MAIN FORCING.
THE WETTEST TIME PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE REGION LOOKS TO BE FROM
06 UTC TONIGHT THROUGH 18 UTC TOMORROW AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MID-LEVEL FGEN FINALLY PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY 40-45KT JET IN THE 925 - 850HPA LAYER DIRECTING
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION. PWATS SURGE TO 1 -
1.3" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEARING 10KFT. EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF STEADY, MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90, THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TURNS BREEZY TOWARDS AND AFTER 06
UTC TONIGHT THANKS TO THE INCOMING JET AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GUSTS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS,
BERKSHIRES, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS REACHING 25 TO 30KTS. AFTER
18 UTC TOMORROW, THE STRONGEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ESCAPES TO OUR EAST AS A SECONDARY WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EAST COAST. RAIN BECOMES LIGHTER AND SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A RAW,
CHILLY LATE MAY DAY AS WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT AND
EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC. IN
FACT, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE 50S. LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
EXITING COASTAL LOW AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE
FOR 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY WITH EVEN A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 1.25" IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND NW CT. LUCKILY, NO FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED
GIVEN RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SOUTH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND FINALLY LIFTS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
TRACKS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE
NORTHEAST ACTUALLY BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK WITH FALLING HEIGHTS RESULTING IN A WEAK
SFC LOW IN WESTERN NY THAT DRAGS A SFC COLD FRONT EASTWARD LATE
MON A.M INTO THE EARLY P.M. WHILE WE BRIEFLY ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE RATHER EARLY ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP. SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAINING SOUTH
AND WEST OF OUR AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENSUING
LEADING TO A WARM AND PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON RISING
WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2..TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BOTH
DAYS. WHILE THE FORECAST STAYS DRY FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR AN OMEGA BLOCK TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA DIVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS STATED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, THIS CAN RESULT IN OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THEN
TREND COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED
NW FLOW RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
REGION. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY STILL VFR, THANKS TO THE
PRECIP BEING VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE
5-8 KFT (ALTHOUGH THERE IS STARTING TO BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS NEAR
KPOU).
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWERING TO
MVFR, AS CAMS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER IN INTENSITY. AS
A RESULT, ALL SITES WILL SEE VISIBILITY LOWER TO 3-5SM IN
RAINFALL WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE. AFTER DAYBREAK,
SOME IFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR ALL SITES, MAINLY FOR
CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 800-1000 FT. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS, WHEN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE MOST STEADY.
THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES. STILL, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MVFR, AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS CEILINGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER SHOWERS LOOKS TO RETURN
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 5-10 KTS FOR
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, MAINLY STILL FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, MAINLY AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
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