744
FXUS61 KALY 240607
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TREND OF LOWERING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS FROM THE NBM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS TODAY. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS
WETTER TREND, HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED PONDING OF WATER
IN THE TYPICAL LOW-LYING AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, ALBEIT WITH
A BRIEF BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, SOME NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:05 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING PRIMARY LOW OVER
WESTERN NY, WITH A SECONDARY INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE NJ
COASTLINE. RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES, AS WELL AS ACROSS OUR
N/NE ZONES WITH A BAND OF 700 MB FGEN THAT WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. CIRA ALPW SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO/JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM
THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ, WITH
AN ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE SFC FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA TODAY, STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 AND 290 K THETA SURFACES OVERLAPPING
WITH THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 50S (VALLEYS). WE ONCE AGAIN
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS TO LOWER NBM TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR TODAY.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW HAS TRENDED QUITE A BIT
WETTER FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE FEATURES PHASE TO OUR WEST, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WHILE THERE WAS
PREVIOUSLY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES, THE LESS IMPRESSIVE CMC/EURO HAVE CAVED TO THE MORE ROBUST
NAM AND GFS WITH THE NORTHERN FEATURE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE LOOKING STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED. AS
THE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 1.5-1.7", WHICH IS NEAR THE DAILY
MAX AT ALY PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE OVERLAP OF UPPER
FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE
A FEW POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN COMES TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THE MORNING
LOOKS WET FOR AT LEAST OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS, WE SHOULD SEE
MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
BETWEEN THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH PLUS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS. WHILE THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE WETTER
TREND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TOO LOW
FOR ANY RIVER FLOOD ISSUES. HOWEVER, FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES (00Z HREF
IS SHOWING 10% CHANCE FOR 1" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS) THAT COULD RESULT
IN A FEW INSTANCES OF NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST, AND
WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ADKS.
FORTUNATELY, THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, SO THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN THE
BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD OR
MORE SERIOUS HYDRO CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AND WARMER WITH FLOW BECOMING
ZONAL ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 80S (VALLEYS). WE AGAIN COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS TO KNOCK DOWN NBM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
IT NOTICEABLE WARM BIAS. WEDNESDAY, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF TUESDAY'S HIGHS. WHILE THE TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT FROM GUIDANCE FOR
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER FORCING ALIGN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, IF THE TIMING IS
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OR STORMS AT ALL. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY
N/NW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES
DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS VERY LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
REGION. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY STILL VFR, THANKS TO THE
PRECIP BEING VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE
5-8 KFT (ALTHOUGH THERE IS STARTING TO BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS NEAR
KPOU).
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWERING TO
MVFR, AS CAMS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER IN INTENSITY. AS
A RESULT, ALL SITES WILL SEE VISIBILITY LOWER TO 3-5SM IN
RAINFALL WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE. AFTER DAYBREAK,
SOME IFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR ALL SITES, MAINLY FOR
CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 800-1000 FT. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS, WHEN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THE MOST STEADY.
THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES. STILL, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MVFR, AS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS CEILINGS
AROUND 1500-2500 FT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER SHOWERS LOOKS TO RETURN
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 5-10 KTS FOR
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, MAINLY STILL FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, MAINLY AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...27
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