479
FXUS64 KAMA 160943
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY. A LOW-
MODERATE CHANCE FOR FLOODING. MODERATE CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
SNOW COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT ON TUESDAY. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES FOR ONE FINAL DAY THIS WEEK. THEN BY
SUNDAY, A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TRACK OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED AND ITS STRENGTH HAS
WEAKENED A BIT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE GFS AND MOST
GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE
ARRIVING TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, AND IT LOSES STRENGTH AS IT
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF STILL TELLS A
DIFFERENT TALE, IT KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSED OFF IN OUR
CWA BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST. OTHER GUIDANCE
LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM12 MEET SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SCENARIOS, BUT THEY STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM WEAKENING THE
FURTHER NORTH IT TRAVELS.
SATURDAY... BEFORE THE RAIN APPROACHES, A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN REACHING THE UPPER
70'S IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, RANGING BETWEEN 15-20
MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION HAS A LOW CHANCE (10%) TO BEGIN EARLY IN
THE MORNING FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONS ITSELF AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THEM DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERALL
QPF HAS DECREASED OVER THE CWA, EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA, LESS PLACES
WILL SEE HOURS OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL DUE TO THE PATTERN CHANGE.
FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN FOR THE LOCATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
THE SYSTEM TRACK CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SUNDAY STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
CONUS. HOWEVER THIS VERY ACT WILL HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE (95%)
OF CAUSING THE TROUGH TO SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM KEEPING TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NOT IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM THAT IS IMPORTANT AS IT
TURNS INTO A LOW PRESSURE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SW. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A VERY HIGH CHANCE (95%) OF MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BEFORE IT RAPIDLY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A HIGH CHANCE (80%) OF BRINGING THE LOW
CENTER OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM DIRECTLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
TRAJECTORY AND FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM ARE THE KEY
FEATURES FOR THE WEATHER IT WILL PROVIDE TO THE PANHANDLES. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO DRAW IN GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE PANHANDLES WITH MOISTURE BEING HIGHER IN THE SE PANHANDLES AND
LOWER IN THE NW PANHANDLES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
DYNAMICS OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HIGH (75% IN NW) TO
NEAR CERTAIN CHANCE (95-100% IN SE) OF CAUSING RAINFALL. THE
MOISTURE AMOUNTS PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL AS THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN
THE SE COMPARED TO THE NW. IN THE CENTRAL TO SE PANHANDLES, WHERE
THERE IS 40% OR MORE CHANCE FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL,
FLOODING RAINS HAVE A 5% TO 40% OF OCCURRING WITH THE % INCREASING
TO THE SE CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES MORE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN WRAP
AROUND SECTOR OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS MEANS THAT THE RAINFALL
HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING A STEADY RAIN COMPARED TO A ON AND
OFF SHOWERY RAIN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM DURING ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%)
THAT ANY OF THESE STORMS MANAGES TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
THREAT OF THESE STRONGER STORMS REMAINS IN THE SE PANHANDLES WHERE
THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE HIGHEST. AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NE OUT OF THE REGION LATE ON MONDAY THE RAIN WILL CEASE SW
TO NE IN A RAPID FASHION. THE WINDS WITH DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (80%) OF BEING GUSTY. THE DIRECTION
WILL VARY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
DIRECTLY OVER THE PANHANDLES. AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL DRAW IN COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE ON
SUNDAY THEN BELOW SEASONABLE ON MONDAY.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
HOWEVER, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS THE FAVORS TRAJECTORY OF
THIS FOLLOW SYSTEM IS NOW TOWARDS THE MID TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH LESSER CHANCE OF IT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MEANS THE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW MAKING SYSTEM HAS INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THAT SNOW
OCCURRING IN THE PANHANDLES HAS DECREASED. IF THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM REMAIN TO THE NORTH THEN THE CHANCE OF
SNOWFALL IN THE PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY IS THAT THE FORMATION AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN CURRENTLY HAS HIGHER CHANCES THAN NOT
OF BEING DRY AS THE AIR MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS SOURCED
FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST VS ANY SOURCE OF WATER. THE WEATHER
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS IT MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THIS 06Z
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH MAYBE SOME
GUST AT KAMA. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING 45 TO 50 KTS OUT OF
THE SSW AROUND 1500 FT WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN MORE
SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 14 TO 18 KTS.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 75 46 63 45 / 0 10 40 100
BEAVER OK 73 41 62 44 / 0 10 20 90
BOISE CITY OK 64 35 53 37 / 0 10 10 70
BORGER TX 76 45 66 46 / 0 10 30 100
BOYS RANCH TX 74 44 63 44 / 0 10 30 90
CANYON TX 74 45 63 44 / 0 10 40 100
CLARENDON TX 74 49 63 48 / 0 10 60 100
DALHART TX 68 39 58 39 / 0 10 20 90
GUYMON OK 71 39 59 39 / 0 10 10 90
HEREFORD TX 75 45 63 44 / 0 10 40 100
LIPSCOMB TX 72 46 63 48 / 0 10 30 100
PAMPA TX 74 45 63 46 / 0 10 40 100
SHAMROCK TX 71 50 65 50 / 0 10 60 100
WELLINGTON TX 74 51 64 52 / 0 0 70 100
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36
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