756
FXUS64 KAMA 161803
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1203 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MAY CAUSE CHANGES IN QPF.
PRECIPITATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY ARE DECREASING, BUT SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST IF PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR.
COOLER DAYS ARE AHEAD STARTING SUNDAY, AND MORNING LOWS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES FOR ONE FINAL DAY THIS WEEK. THEN BY
SUNDAY, A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TRACK OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED AND ITS STRENGTH HAS
WEAKENED A BIT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE GFS AND MOST
GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE
ARRIVING TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, AND IT LOSES STRENGTH AS IT
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE IN OUR AREA. THE ECMWF STILL TELLS A
DIFFERENT TALE, IT KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSED OFF IN OUR
CWA BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST. OTHER GUIDANCE
LIKE THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM12 MEET SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO SCENARIOS, BUT THEY STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM WEAKENING THE
FURTHER NORTH IT TRAVELS.
SATURDAY... BEFORE THE RAIN APPROACHES, A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN REACHING THE UPPER
70'S IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, RANGING BETWEEN 15-20
MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION HAS A LOW CHANCE (10%) TO BEGIN EARLY IN
THE MORNING FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONS ITSELF AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THEM DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERALL
QPF HAS DECREASED OVER THE CWA, EXCEPT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA, LESS PLACES
WILL SEE HOURS OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL DUE TO THE PATTERN CHANGE.
FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN FOR THE LOCATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
THE SYSTEM TRACK CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. BY THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY, BUT IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE FIRST. THE MOISTURE
QUALITY IN THE AREA WILL BE MUCH LOWER; THEREFORE, POPS HAVE
DECREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NBM FORECASTS. SNOW MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. VALUES AROUND AN INCH AT BEST COULD OCCUR. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
WITH COLD MORNING LOWS. MOST PLACES IN THE CWA WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND FOR
WEDNESDAY SPECIFICALLY, TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 30 DEGREES ACROSS
THE REGION.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
PRETTY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
30 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THINGS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT RAIN MAKING SYSTEM APPROACHING. FOR NOW, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A MODERATE SW BREEZE. A WEAK FRONT
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NNE WIND BY 18Z SUN. A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS
OR STORM TO THE SE TX PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS 15 UTC SUNDAY, BUT
THESE WOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 75 46 63 45 / 0 10 40 100
BEAVER OK 73 41 62 44 / 0 10 10 90
BOISE CITY OK 64 35 53 37 / 0 0 10 80
BORGER TX 76 45 66 46 / 0 10 30 100
BOYS RANCH TX 74 44 63 44 / 0 10 30 90
CANYON TX 74 45 63 44 / 0 10 40 100
CLARENDON TX 74 49 63 48 / 0 10 60 100
DALHART TX 68 39 58 39 / 0 10 10 90
GUYMON OK 71 39 59 39 / 0 10 10 90
HEREFORD TX 75 45 63 44 / 0 10 50 100
LIPSCOMB TX 72 46 63 48 / 0 10 30 100
PAMPA TX 74 45 63 46 / 0 10 40 100
SHAMROCK TX 71 50 65 50 / 0 0 60 100
WELLINGTON TX 74 51 64 52 / 0 0 70 100
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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