201
FXUS64 KAMA 171147
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
547 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO START
THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY AND WILL NOT EXIT THE
PANHANDLES UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON NOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
EARLY THIS MORNING... PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
RUNNING SW/NE THROUGH OUR CWA. EVERYTHING THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF
THIS LINE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE ADVECTING
MOISTURE AND TIGHTER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD. REFLECTIVITY
THAT SPAWNS BEHIND THE BAND IS MOSTLY VIRGA, AND HAS NOT BEEN
REPORTED MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE INITIAL WAVES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY ON TARGET
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE SPEED OF IT'S TRANSITION HAS
DECREASED. THIS WILL PROMPT SHOWERS TO BENIGN LATER IN THE DAY
TODAY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY LAST LONGER ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT END IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHEST QPF STILL FAVORS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WHERE TOTALS
BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES AND WILL BEGIN AT 6 PM TONIGHT WHEN THE
MAIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TILL ABOUT 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES ARE VERY LOW FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SET UP SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT A
SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
LINGER IN THE CWA UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A SECOND, WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA BY TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN
TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN. THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE POOR. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WE HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP BELOW OUR MENTIONABLE
CRITERIA. NEITHER RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT, WITH
VERY LOW ODDS OF OCCURRENCE FOR THE DAY (<10% CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW). FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BENIGN WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
CWA, WHILE LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
PANHANDLES BY THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THROUGH
AMA FIRST AND THEN REACH GUY AND DHT A FEW HOURS AFTERWARDS. ONCE
IT BEGINS, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE REST OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. AS SHOWERS CARRY ON, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL DROP LOWER. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE IN AT ALL SITES BY
MIDNIGHT AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIFT AT THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT IF
ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY AMENDMENTS WILL BECOME
NECESSARY. CURRENTLY, AMA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BUT THE ODDS ARE STILL TOO LOW TO MAKE MENTIONS IN THE
TAF.
RANGEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 65 44 60 36 / 20 100 70 0
BEAVER OK 60 43 56 31 / 10 100 90 0
BOISE CITY OK 53 37 55 27 / 0 80 70 0
BORGER TX 66 45 61 34 / 10 100 80 0
BOYS RANCH TX 63 43 61 33 / 10 100 80 0
CANYON TX 64 44 61 35 / 30 100 70 0
CLARENDON TX 66 48 61 38 / 50 100 50 0
DALHART TX 58 38 60 29 / 10 90 70 0
GUYMON OK 58 39 55 29 / 10 100 90 0
HEREFORD TX 65 44 63 35 / 30 100 70 0
LIPSCOMB TX 64 47 58 35 / 10 100 80 0
PAMPA TX 64 45 57 36 / 20 100 70 0
SHAMROCK TX 66 50 61 39 / 50 100 50 0
WELLINGTON TX 67 52 63 39 / 60 100 40 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ005-
009-010-013>015-018>020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page