776
FXUS64 KAMA 171805
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO START
THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
EARLY THIS MORNING... PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
RUNNING SW/NE THROUGH OUR CWA. EVERYTHING THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF
THIS LINE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO THE ADVECTING
MOISTURE AND TIGHTER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD. REFLECTIVITY
THAT SPAWNS BEHIND THE BAND IS MOSTLY VIRGA, AND HAS NOT BEEN
REPORTED MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE INITIAL WAVES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY ON TARGET
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE SPEED OF IT'S TRANSITION HAS
DECREASED. THIS WILL PROMPT SHOWERS TO BENIGN LATER IN THE DAY
TODAY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY LAST LONGER ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT END IN THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHEST QPF STILL FAVORS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WHERE TOTALS
BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES ARE LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES AND WILL BEGIN AT 6 PM TONIGHT WHEN THE
MAIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TILL ABOUT 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES ARE VERY LOW FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SET UP SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT A
SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
LINGER IN THE CWA UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A SECOND, WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA BY TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN
TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN. THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE POOR. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WE HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP BELOW OUR MENTIONABLE
CRITERIA. NEITHER RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT, WITH
VERY LOW ODDS OF OCCURRENCE FOR THE DAY (<10% CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW). FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, BENIGN WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
CWA, WHILE LOWS WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
THE AREA THIS EVENING, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MUCH OF
MONDAY. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AND ARE POSSIBLE
FOR ANY OF THE SITES, BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTING
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. PROBABILITIES OF STORMS
WRT TAF SITES IS HIGHEST IN AMARILLO AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION
THERE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WHEN PROBS ARE
HIGHEST. OUTSIDE OF THIS, WILL ADJUST WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR AMA AND GUY, WHILE DHT
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS SLIGHTLY EARLIER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 63 44 58 36 / 40 100 80 0
BEAVER OK 58 43 54 31 / 20 100 90 0
BOISE CITY OK 51 36 54 27 / 20 90 80 0
BORGER TX 63 45 59 34 / 20 100 80 0
BOYS RANCH TX 63 43 60 33 / 20 100 90 0
CANYON TX 64 44 60 35 / 50 100 80 0
CLARENDON TX 65 48 59 38 / 60 100 40 0
DALHART TX 57 38 58 29 / 20 100 90 0
GUYMON OK 56 39 54 29 / 10 100 90 0
HEREFORD TX 64 44 61 35 / 50 100 80 0
LIPSCOMB TX 60 48 56 35 / 30 100 80 0
PAMPA TX 62 45 56 36 / 30 100 60 0
SHAMROCK TX 65 50 60 39 / 60 100 40 0
WELLINGTON TX 65 51 62 39 / 70 100 30 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
TXZ005-009-010-013>015-018>020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...88
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