173
FXUS64 KAMA 180846
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
246 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA HAVING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
20'S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AS OF THE LATEST 08Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, THE REMAINDER
OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES REGION IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
THE STOUT, BUT NOTABLE H500-300 90 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEARLY OVER EL PASO, IS PROVIDING A LARGE
DOMAIN OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE CENTRAL AND PANHANDLES
WITHIN THE NEGATIVE H850-700 THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME IS
EXPERIENCING STRATIFORM RAINFALL THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. MEANWHILE, AT LEAST THROUGH
JUST PAST SUNRISE PERIOD, THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH TD VALUES
IN THE LOWER 60S IN THE H850-700 THETA-E POSITIVE ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE WITH A STRONG
OR SEVERE STORM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. PAST
SUNRISE, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SFC-H850 FLOW WILL ADVECT
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE THETA-E REGIME THROUGH ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES AS THE MAIN H500 LOW BI-SECTS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM
SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS
NOW QUICKLY NE MOVING STACKED LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES. BY THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NE PANHANDLES, RAIN SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP FOR
ALL. WHEN ALL SET AND DONE, ALONG AND SOUTH OH HIGHWAY 60 SHOULD
SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5-3" OF RAIN, WITH ABOUT A
10-20% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3.5" FAVORING THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE AREAS INDICATED
BY THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. RIVER FLOODING IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, IN CASE OF ANY DELAYED CRESTS THAT MAY OCCUR WHERE
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
GOING PAST TODAY, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH LOW DROPPING
INTO THE 20S IN THE NW AND 30S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BRINGING SOME MORE CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE SE. TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO VALUES RANGING FROM
LOWER 20S IN THE NW TO SUB FREEZING LOWER 30S IN THE SE.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, AFTER OUR
COLDEST LOW TEMPS OCCURRING TOMORROW NIGHT, WE WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AND SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND. WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WINDS WILL
ALSO TAPER OFF, GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ARRIVED IN AMARILLO, AND CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO
THE POINT WHERE ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IFR OR LIFR BY AROUND 09Z.
CEILINGS WILL RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE CONTINUED A PROB30
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT AMARILLO LATER TONIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 57 36 56 28 / 70 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 53 32 52 26 / 90 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 51 27 47 24 / 80 0 0 0
BORGER TX 57 35 57 28 / 80 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 60 33 57 25 / 90 0 0 0
CANYON TX 60 35 57 27 / 70 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 39 59 30 / 40 0 0 0
DALHART TX 57 29 52 22 / 90 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 51 29 51 23 / 90 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 61 36 59 26 / 80 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 59 35 54 28 / 80 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 56 35 55 29 / 70 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 62 39 59 32 / 50 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 64 40 61 32 / 40 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ004-005-008>010-013>015-
017>020-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
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