123
FXUS64 KAMA 191727
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1127 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS INITIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HAVE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. THE FRONT ALSO
BROUGHT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WHICH IS KEEPING HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO SOME LOWER 60S FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, A NICE FALL DAY IS FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLES
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 20'S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES.
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS THAT COULD BE 15 DEGREE
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN FROM MONTANA TODAY AND MERGE
WITH THE SYSTEM THAT EXITED AND BROUGHT ALL THAT PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT AND THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL EXPAND AND DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY
AND THOSE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS. ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 HAVE A 80 PERCENT CHANCE TO FALL BELOW 28 AND
HARD FREEZE. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER, THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON THE GRASSES THAT HAVE NOT YET CURED DUE TO THE 1ST HARD
FREEZE. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 HAVE ABOUT A 50
PERCENT CHANCE TO HARD FREEZE, WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST (DONLEY,
WHEELER, COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY) HAVING ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO
HARD FREEZE. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH OF A WIND CHILL TO GET TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT COOLER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE
50S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WARMER AIR MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST BEFORE WE START TO LOSE FULL MIXING, AND THAT COULD ALLOW A
COUPLE AREAS TO PULL OFF THE LOW 60S, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THAT
IS LOW (~20% CHANCE). OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WE EXPECT THEM TO BE TONIGHT. SO CONTINUED
HARD FREEZES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BETWEEN THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, SO
MUCH THAT WE'LL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE'S EVEN A SMALL CHANCE (~5%) THAT WE COULD SEE 80 IN
THE PALO DURO CANYON STATE PARK AREA. RIGHT NOW WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND, AS THE CURRENT RECORDS
ARE STILL IN THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT WE'RE STILL LOOKING
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THERE'S A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
GIVEN THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE PANHANDLES EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE
EARLIER SOLUTION WILL SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT PUSHES ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS AROUND OR BELOW
50, BUT THE SLOWER PROGRESSION HAS THE FRONT STALLED OUT MID DAY
AND THEN PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
CONFIDENCE IN MONDAY'S HIGHS IS VERY LOW (<20%). MONDAY'S HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH INITIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND WILL
SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST/WEST.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 57 28 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 53 26 54 27 / 10 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 48 23 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 57 28 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 56 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 57 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 54 23 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 51 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 58 27 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 55 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 54 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 59 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 63 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05
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